By Stan Oyunga (firstname.lastname@example.org)
The 2013 General Election is still being referred to a generally being free and fair by most election observers and the Supreme Court in its landmark ruling on 30th March, 2013. The turn-out for the 2013 elections was 86 %, the highest in Kenya’s history.
Out of the 14,352,533 registered voters, 12,221,053 (85.90 %) took part in the 2013 General Elections but 2,022,196 (14.09 %) did not vote. But the number of registered voters in 2013 was only 57,801 more than the registered voters for the 2007 General Elections (14,294,732). This was lowest incremental difference between two successive General Elections. The incremental difference in registered voters between the 2002 and 2007 was 3,843,582. The low voter registration can be mainly attributed to voter apathy after the 2007/2008 post election violence. Another reason is delaying in issuing ID cards to youths who may have applied but were holding waiting papers.
The Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had set a voter registration target of 18. 2 million for the 2013 elections but managed to register only 14.3 million (79 % of target). But this was only 37 % of the total population of 38.6 million as per 2009 census, hence making the 2013 elections with the second lowest voter registration percentage vis-à-vis the total population. Only the 1992 elections had a lower percentage (36.6 %). The 2007 elections had 41 % voter registration while the 1983 had the highest voter registration of any election-47 %.
On average adults account for 50 % of Kenya’s population but only an average of 40 % actually register as voters. In the 2013 elections, voter registration by region was as follows:-
1. Nairobi-57 % (3.1 million)
2. Central-50 % (4.3 million)
3. Eastern-37 % (5.6 million)
4. Nyanza-36 % (5.4 million)
5. Coast-35 % (3.3 million)
6. Rift Valley-34 % (10 million)
7. Western-33 % (4.3 million)
8. North Eastern-15 % (2.3 million)
During the 2009 census, results in some districts in North Eastern Province were discredited by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) as unrealistic. This could explain why only 15 % of the population was registered as voters in 2012 in this province.
An attempt to repeat the census in these districts was stopped by the High Court, so the census results were used by the IEBC to set the new constituency boundaries.
The population of North Eastern Province has grown by 240 % in only ten years from 962,143 in 1999 to 2,310,757 in 2009. But the population of Mandera County grew by 400 % from 250,372 in 1999 to 1,025,756 in 2009.
As a result, Mandera South constituency (no 042) is now Kenya’s most populous constituency with population of 247,619, replacing Embakasi which has been split into five constituencies. The IEBC gave Mandera South a target of 115,440, the highest in the country, but by the end of the voter registration on 18th December, 2012, only 10,600 (8 %) had been registered, begging the question-why would the most populous constituency in the country have the second lowest number of registered voters in 2012?
NO SHOW VOTERS
In the 2013 General Elections, a total of 2,022,196 registered voters did not turn-up to vote, representing 14 % of all registered voters. If only 50 % of “no show voters” had turned up then the difference between the Jubilee and Cord candidates would have been narrower, hence forcing a run-off.
The 10 counties with the most “no show” voters (having half of the 2 million) in the 2013 elections were:-
It can be noted from above that out of the 10 counties with most “no show” voters, 6 were in CORD strongholds (over 540,000) and only 3 in Jubilee strongholds (over 200,000) with Nairobi being a fifty/fifty county (over 300,000). Since most “no show voters” were in counties considered CORD strongholds, it is very unlikely that the outcome of the 2013 Presidential elections would have changed even if there was a run-off.
In the 2013 Presidential election, 108,975 votes were rejected, which was 0.88 % of the 12,330,028 valid votes. The 5 constituencies with most rejected voters were:-
1. Cherangany (c/no 140)-1,213
2. Machakos Town (c/no 081)-1,210
3. Kiminini (c/no 139)-1,157
4. Malava (c/no 201)-1,111
5. Starehe (c/no 289)-1,047
It was noted that there were only 10 rejected votes in the Diaspora and only 2 constituencies had no rejected votes-Kesses (c/no 146) and Vihiga (c/no 211).
TURN-OUT BY CONSTITUENCY
The top 5 constituencies in number of voters who voted in the 2013 Presidential elections were:-
1. Starehe (c/no 289)-110,828 (83 %)
2. Westlands (c/no 274)-98,391(83 %)
3. Naivasha (c/no 168)-98,182 (89 %)
4. Ruiru (c/no 115)-94,666 (84 %)
5. Kasarani (c/no 280)-91,580 (88 %)
The top 5 constituencies in percentage of registered voters who voted in the 2013 Presidential elections were:-
1. Lari (c/no 122)-96.04 %
2. Awendo (c/no 254)-95.40 %
3. Kajiado West (c/no 186)-95.39 %
4. Rongo (c/no 253)-95.37 %
5. Kinangop (c/no 089)-94.85 %
The bottom 5 constituencies in percentage of registered voters who voted in the 2013 Presidential elections were:-
1. Kilifi North (c/no 011)-58.13 %
2. Kaloleni (c/no 013)-62.21 %
3. Jomvu (c/no 002)-64.01 %
4. Changamwe (c/no 001)-64.66 %
5. Kilifi South (c/no 012)-65.33 %
Note that all of the above constituencies are in Coast Region which is a CORD stronghold. There were two attacks on police officers in Miritini in Mombasa County and police officers and election officials in Chumani in Kilifi County on the eve of the General Elections leaving several dead. These attacks appear to have contributed to the low voter turn-out.
The 2013 General Elections were the largest in history comprising six distinct elections with a record 12,765 candidates comprising:-
1. Presidential-8 (1 woman)
2. Parliamentary-2098 (159 women but only 16 elected)
3. Senatorial-244 (19 women but none elected).
4. Gubernatorial-237 (7 women but none elected).
5. Women Rep-303
6. County Ward Rep-9885
Out of the 2,098 candidates who stood in the Parliamentary elections, 102 were incumbents out of which only 60 (21 %) were re-elected; 41 were former MPs out of which 17 (6 % ) were elected; 191 were previous candidates in past elections out of which 39 (13 %) were elected, 1,764 were newcomers out of which 174 (60 % ) were elected.
Out of the 47 Senators who were elected, 19 were MPs in the 10th Parliament but chose not to defend their seats; 11 were former MPs prior to the 10th Parliament; 6 were previous candidates in past Parliamentary elections; and11 were newcomers.
Out of 47 Governors who were elected, 8 were MPs in the 10th Parliament but chose not to defend their seats; 5 were former MPs prior to the 10th Parliament; 5 were previous candidates in past Parliamentary elections; and 29 were newcomers.
Out of the 47 Women Representatives elected to the National Assembly, 1 was a former MP prior to the 10th Parliament; 5 were previous candidates in past Parliamentary elections; and 41 were newcomers.
SOURCE: KENYA ELECTION DATABASE VERSION 1.0 www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke