By Hillary Ang’awa
Kenya may be heading for its first ever Presidential Election run-off in September, 2017 as both Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Party and Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance (NASA) may both fail to attain the 50% plus 1 threshold in the 8th August, 2017 elections. This prediction has been reached after using the Kenya Election Database software to analyze the past voting patterns and trends, voter registration as at 21/2/2017, ethnic block votes and demographics.
The IEBC registered 19,677,463 voters as at 21-2-2017 (minus Diaspora, Prisoners and University students).
The Kenya Election Database software, the only election data analysis and strategic election software for
Kenya elections, predicted in November, 2015, that there will be 19,320,493 registered voters in 2017,
which is only 356,970 less than the actual number attained by the IEBC after the end of the 2nd Mass Voter
Registration on 21st February, 2017. It is expected that the IEBC figure will reduce by about 500,000 after
auditing the voter register to remove duplicates and dead voters.
Recently the Leader of The Majority, Aden Duale, claimed that Jubilee will win the August elections by 3 million votes in only three counties (including Nakuru) but his statement assumed 100% turn-out and no NASA voters exist in Nakuru and that NASA has no counties in their strongholds to counter the votes from these three counties, and this report will prove him wrong.
In opinion polls, the respondents are selected at random but from a representative group to represent the
opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio.
In both 2007 and 2013, opinion polls in Kenya were not accurate when the final results were announced.
In voting trend analysis, the results of past elections are used to analyse the possible outcome of a
future election based on actual voter registration and expected turn-out from each stronghold county
of a coalition.
IDENTIFYING COALITION STRONGHOLDS
The Kenya Election Database software based each coalition’s stronghold county on results
of the 2013 Presidential elections, where the candidate won more than 65% or more of valid votes
in that county. Where both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga had also most equal votes, then that county is
considered ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battleground’. Hence CORD has 19 stronghold counties and Jubilee has
18 with 10 ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battlegrounds’ as follows:-
04 TANA RIVER
38 VIHIGA (Won by Mudavadi but now NASA)
43 HOMA BAY
24 WEST POKOT
27 UASIN GISHU
28 ELGEYO MARA
BATTLEGROUNDS (50/50) COUNTIES
26 TRANS NZOIA
2017 POLITICAL ALLIANCES
In the run-up to the August, 2017 elections, the NASA coalition has yet to name its flag bearer as at
31st March, 2017 hence the possibility of a dramatic shift in voting pattern may occur if Kalonzo Musyoka,
Party Leader of Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya leaves NASA and either runs alone for the Presidency or joins Jubilee Party in a coalition. It is expected the Kamba majority counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui will vote for him or Uhuru Kenyatta. If this happens NASA will be denied the nearly 2 million Kamba votes including 1.5 million from the three Kamba majority counties and 500,000 Kambas in the diaspora, mainly in Nairobi and the Coast Region.
The South Rift ‘rebellion’ by Governor Isaac Rutto and his Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM), despite Rutto joining NASA as a principal, is expected to fade away and most Kalenjins will vote for Uhuru for President, with CCM contesting other seats, but his battle with Deputy President William Ruto will continue. KANU has already indicated that it will support Uhuru while contesting other seats in its Rift Valley stronghold, again fighting DP Ruto’s influence. The other counties are expected to vote as they did in 2013, including Mandera with its unique ‘negotiated’ democracy where clan elders select candidates for all seats from MCAs to Governor and the incumbents do not defend their seats. The so called ‘disgruntled’ voters in Meru and Tharaka Nithi will also fall into line and support Uhuru. Expect Uhuru’s votes in the Coast and Western to decrease slightly from 2013 as the Jubilee Party fails to make any impact in this two Regions.
‘TYRANNY OF NUMBERS’ IS NOW ‘TURN-OUT OF NUMBERS’
In my blog ‘Tyranny of Numbers was a political myth’ posted on the Kenya Election Database Facebook
page on 12th March, 2017, I concluded, after analysing registration data from the IEBC and data from the
Kenya Election Database software and using Excel spreadsheets:-
(1) Nasa strongholds have 2017 projected population of 21m (43.6%) against 17.7m (36.8%) for Jubilee strongholds. Battleground have 9.4m out of total population of 48.3 million.
(2) By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8m).
(3) Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9m hence missing its estimated voters by 446,269. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 491,305. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 311,934.
(4) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to NASA strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 10,029,013 (50.9%) out of 19.6m.
(6) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to Jubilee strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 9,648,449 (49.03%) out of 19.6m.
(7) NASA has registered 380,564 more voters as at 21-7-2017 than Jubilee (10,029,013 against 9,648,449).
From the above figures it is clear that both NASA and Jubilee have registered almost the same number of voters with NASA having 10.6m against 9.6m for Jubilee, a variance of only 380,564 in favour of NASA. Hence the Coalition that turns-out most of its registered voters to vote on 8th August, 2017 is sure to win the elections.
PREDICTING THE WINNER OF THE 2017 ELECTIONS
The prediction of a run-off after the August elections was reached by calculating each counties projected vote at eighty per cent of its registered voters. Eighty per cent is the average percentage of adults who actually vote in Kenya elections. For example Mombasa County has 596,485 registered voters in 2017, hence 80% of this is 477,188 will be its projected votes in 2017. But since Mombasa is a NASA county but has Jubilee voters, hence I used the 2013 Presidential election to determine the breakdown, which was 72% (NASA) and 24% (Jubilee). The Mombasa share of votes is then calculated at 72% of 477,188 to get NASA’s share (343,575) and 24% of 477,188 to get Jubilee’s share (114,525). Total projected votes for both coalitions will be 458,100 minus other parties. This formula is used for each county and is summarised below:-
1) IF VOTER TURN OUT IS 80 % THEN NASA’S TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 7.7 MILLION (48.93%) AND JUBILEE’S 7.6 MILLION (48.37%) (VARIANCE OF 87,000). TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 15.7 MILLION IF 80% TURN-OUT. A NARROW NASA WIN BUT BOTH FAIL TO GET 50% + 1 HENCE RUN-OFF IN SEPT, 2017. THIS IS BECAUSE THE 100% PROJECTED VOTE (ALL CANDIDATES) IS 15.7 MILLION HENCE 50% IS 7.8 MILLION.
2) IF VOTER TURN OUT IS 80 % IN BATTLEGROUND COUNTIES THEN NASA’S PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 1.6 MILLION (50.51%) AND JUBILEE’S 1.5 MILLION (46.10%) (VARIANCE OF 143,000). TOTAL PROJ VOTES WILL BE 3.2 MILLION.
3) IF TURN-OUT IS 80% THEN NASA STRONGHOLDS ARE PROJECTED TO HAVE 6.3 MILLION VOTES, JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS 6 MILLION AND BATTLEGROUNDS 3.2 MILLION. WHEN HALF OF BATTLEGROUNDS ARE ADDED TO EACH COALITIONS’ VOTES THEN NASA IS PROJECTED TO HAVE 7.7 MILLION AND JUBILEE 7.6 MILLION.
4) IN CASE THE KAMBA LEAVE NASA AND GO IT ALONE IN 2017 ELECTIONS, THEN NASA VOTES WILL REDUCE TO 6.6 MILLION. IF KAMBAS VOTE WITH JUBILEE THEN JUBILEE’S PROJECTED VOTES WILL INCREASE TO 8.6 MILLION (VARIANCE OF 2 MILLION). JUBILEE WINS IN FIRST ROUND.
5) OUT OF THE 19.6 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS, 7.9 MILLION ARE FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS AND 7.6 MILLION FROM JUBILEE’S AND 4 MILLION FROM BATTLEGROUNDS.
6) AFTER CLOSURE OF VOTER REGISTRATION ON 27-2-2017, NASA STRONGHOLDS HAD REGISTERED ONLY 380,000 MORE VOTERS THAN JUBILEE AND IS PROJECTED TO HAVE ONLY 269,000 VOTES MORE THAN JUBILEE IF TURN-OUT IS 80% WHEN YOU EXCLUDE BATTLEGROUNDS. THIS MEANS NASA DID NOT IMPROVE ITS NUMBERS IN THE 2016/2017 VOTER REGISTRATION DESPITE HAVING 3 MILLION MORE PEOPLE IN ITS STRONGHOLDS THAN JUBILEE (21 MILLION VS 17.7 MILLION).
The above figures are a projection of the 8th August, 2017 election results based on voter registration and past voting patterns and trends if voter turn-out is 80% in all 47 counties.Of course not all counties will achieve a 80% turn-out due to voter apathy and other factors but both coalitions will have to undertake massive GOTV (Get out the vote) campaigns in order to achieve 80% or higher turn-out, failure to which the other side will carry the day, as Jubilee did in 2013 with only a mere 8,000 votes that saved them from a run-off. The 1.2 million ‘no show’ CORD voters in 2013 would have been enough to Raila give victory. NASA can only win if it remains united as loss of the 2 million Kamba ethnic block vote will prove to be fatal.
Jubilee knows that they can no longer rely on the ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ which has been proved to be an illusion and must now hope Kalonzo pulls out of NASA to ensure their victory in the first round. They should also avoid voter apathy when some supporters in their strongholds may not bother to vote. In the US elections Hillary Clinton missed making history as the first woman President by just 70,000 votes in the electoral colleges of 3 states despite winning the popular vote by 3 million. Even rigging is no longer an option with stringent controls and the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) expected to in place before June, 2017.
The higher the turn-out the less likely chances of rigging, since you can only rig to replace ‘no-show’ voters. A 99% voter turn-out will make rigging almost impossible.
The four Excel spread-sheets (Reports 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D) used to compile can be downloaded.
28th APRIL, 2017
© 2017 Hillary Ang’awa (Tel no 0722751753 Email: email@example.com)
The Kenya Election Database version 2.1 is a product of Systex Solutions P O Box 2523-00200 Nairobi
Tel 0722751753 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
REPORT-2B-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-NASA.xlsx (29 downloads)
REPORT-2C-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-JUBILEE.xlsx (30 downloads)
REPORT-2D-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-BATTLEGROUNDS.xlsx (42 downloads)