ELECTION SOFTWARE ACCURATELY PREDICTED 2017 REGISTERED VOTERS IN NOVEMBER, 2015

By Hillary Ang’awa

The IEBC registered 19,677,463 voters as at 21-2-2017 (minus Diaspora, Prisoners and University students). The Kenya Election Database software, the only election data analysis and strategic election software for Kenya elections, predicted in November, 2015, that there will be 19,320,493 registered voters in 2017, which is only 356,970 less than the actual number attained by the IEBC after the end of the 2nd Mass Voter Registration on 21st February, 2017. It is expected that the IEBC figure will reduce by about 500,000 after auditing the voter register to remove duplicates and dead voters.
In some cases the prediction was almost spot on, e.g. the software predicted that Kericho County will have 379,473 voters in 2017 and the actual IEBC figure was 379,815, which is only more by 342. For Isiolo County, the software predicted that there will be 71,704 voters and the IEBC figure was 72,548, which was more by 844. For Nyanza Region the software predicted that there will be 2,723,533 voters in 2017 and the actual IEBC figure was 2,686,168, which was 37,365 less. For Coast Region the prediction for 2017 was 1,663,984, while the IEBC figure was 1,733,722, which was more by 69,738.
The predictions were contained in a blog entitled “Road to Kenya Elections 2017: Can this software predict the winner” by Stan Oyunga that was posted on the Kenya Election Database on 4th November, 2015. The prediction read as follows:-
“The first step in attempting to predict the results of the 2017 Presidential Elections is to project the number of eligible voters by county as shown in the tables above. To achieve this the software first projects each county’s population for 2017 (based on average annual growth rate of 2.4%) then calculates the number of voters at 40% of the projected population, since the average percentage of Kenyans who register to vote is 40% (equal to 80% of adult population). The software has calculated Kenya’s population in 2017 to be 48.3 million and estimated the eligible voters at 19.3 million if 80% of adult voter registration is achieved. Some counties may exceed 80% and some may be below, hence the 80% is considered average for all 47 counties”.

Please the original Excel report that predicted the 2017 registered voters and posted on the KED website in November, 2015 and the latest report after the end of Mass Voter Reg II on 21-2-2017 can be downloaded.

28th April, 2017

© 2017 Hillary Ang’awa (Tel no 0722751753 Email: hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

2017-COUNTIES-REGISTERED-VOTERS-AS-AT-21-2-2017-BY-REGION.xlsx (80 downloads)

 

COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-ALL-Nov-2015.xls (31 downloads)