By Stan Oyunga (email@example.com)
It’s more or less certain, unless something untoward happens, that Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will once again face each other in a Presidential Election on Tuesday, 8th August, 2017.
It will be 6th Presidential Elections since independence, with the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta standing in his 3rd Presidential Election and Raila Odinga in his 4th attempt.
Kenyatta is expected to stand under the new Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) that was registered in December, 2014 to take over parties that were in the Jubilee Coalition, The National Alliance (TNA), the United Republican Party (URP), and other small parties.
Odinga is expected to stand on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket, part of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD).
Uhuru Kenyatta won the 2013 Presidential Elections by garnering 6.1 million votes (50.07%) against Raila Odinga’s 5.3 million (43.31%), out of the 12.3 million valid votes cast. The variance was 832,887.
Although Odinga challenged the results by a petition in the Supreme Court, the Court upheld Uhuru’s victory by its landmark ruling on 30th March, 2013.
Kenyatta’s victory was attributed to the so-called “tyranny of numbers”, where supporters of the Jubilee coalition had registered and turned up to vote in the 2013 General Elections in much larger numbers than those of the CORD coalition.
Jubilee leaders are already boasting of winning the 2017 Presidential Elections, and even ruling Kenya for the next “20 years”, but can the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) repeat the 2013 victory, or will Uhuru Kenyatta make history by being the first incumbent President in East Africa to be defeated in a democratic election? Unless he wins, Uhuru will also make history by serving the shortest term of any Kenyan president, of only four years and four months. Kenya may also join Nigeria, Malawi, Somalia, Zambia, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire and Madagascar as the only African countries where incumbents have lost in democratic elections since 2000.
In order to get the answers to these questions, I used the Kenya Election Database, an Election Data Analysis and Strategic Election Planning software (visit www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke ) and the double-edged sword of the “tyranny of numbers” can now be revealed.
There is no doubt Uhuru Kenyatta won the 2013 Presidential Elections, notwithstanding that it could have gone for a run-off, if the automated vote tallying system had not failed.
The analysis detailed below will show that a combination of better voter registration and voter turn-out in Jubilee strongholds assured Kenyatta victory despite Raila Odinga winning more constituencies and counties. The ODM became the largest single party in the 11th Parliament with 78 elected seats followed by TNA with 72. But due to the pre-election coalition agreement with the URP, which won 62 elected seats, the Jubilee coalition became the largest coalition in Parliament, hence the infamous “tyranny of numbers”.
Despite have more potential voters in its strongholds than Jubilee, the CORD coalition failed to take advantage of this to ensure most were registered by 18th December, 2012 and turned-up to vote on 4th March, 2013.
2013 PRESIDENTAIL ELECTIONS: ODM VS TNA
In the 2013 Presidential Elections, Uhuru Kenyatta of TNA won in 135 out of 291 constituencies while Raila Odinga of ODM won 153. Musalia Mudavadi of United Democratic Forum Party (UDF) won only 3. Kenyatta obtained 5.2 million votes from constituencies where he was winner out of the total of 6.1 million votes he got in the 2013 Elections. Out of 135 constituencies where Kenyatta won, 790,519 registered voters did not vote and an estimated 1.4 million did not register (based on IEBC targets).
Odinga obtained 4.4 million votes from the 153 constituencies where he was winner, out of total of 5.3 million votes he got in 2013 Elections. Out of the 153 constituencies where he was winner, 1.2 million registered voters did not vote and an estimated 2.3 million did not register (based on IEBC targets). (See Report 7A).
Hence while Kenyatta had a voter deficit of 2 .2 million from his strongholds, Odinga had a voter deficit of 3.5 million.
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Out of the 135 constituencies which Uhuru won, 72 had more than 5,000 potential voters who did not register (see Report 7B-TNA Not Reg ranking). Most of his unregistered potential voters were from semi-arid counties like Mandera, Wajir, West Pokot, Baringo, etc.
Out of the 153 constituencies which Odinga won, 131 had more than 5,000 potential voters who did not register (see Report 7C-ODM Not Reg ranking). This report shows the constituencies where Odinga won and ranked from the highest with unregistered potential voters who did not register to the lowest. Most of his unregistered potential voters came from Turkana, Garissa, Kwale, Kilifi and Trans-Nzoia Counties.
Kenyatta had 65 constituencies where he was the winner, that had more than 5,000 registered voters who did not vote, most of who were in Nairobi, Kiambu and Nakuru counties which have a high population (see Report 7D-TNA Not Voted ranking).
Odinga had 95 constituencies where he was the winner, that had more than 5,000 registered voters who did not vote, most of who were in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi, Machakos, Kwale Counties (see Report 7E-ODM Not Voted ranking). Only Nairobi and Mombasa have a high population.
ODM VS TNA: VOTER DEFICIT AND NOT VOTED BY COUNTY
In the 2013 Presidential Elections, Uhuru Kenyatta of TNA won in 20 counties, Raila Odinga of ODM won in 26 and Musalia Mudavadi of UDF won in only 1.
In Coalition terms, Jubilee had 18 counties which were its stronghold and CORD had also 18 (stronghold is determined by the winning candidate garnering more than 66.6 % of valid votes). In 10 counties each Coalition had almost equal votes (Fifty/Fifty counties). The only county that was not won by either Jubilee or CORD was Vihiga which was won by Mudavadi of UDF (Amani coalition). In Report 7F (Voter Deficit ranking by County) Jubilee is shown in red, CORD is in blue and Fifty/Fifty counties are in green (Amani’s single county is in brown). It is obvious that CORD counties have the worst Voter Deficit ranking with 2.1 million potential voters not registered, with Turkana, Bungoma and Kakamega ranked worst. Mandera is ranked on top but this because its 2009 population census may have been manipulated hence may not reflect what was on the ground. The same may apply to Turkana. The Counties with the lowest Voter deficit are Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Muranga and Kirinyaga (most in Jubilee strongholds).
In Report 7G (Not Voted ranking by County), the Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi and Kakamega (most CORD strongholds) had the worst Not Voted ranking. Isiolo, Samburu and Lamu (all 50/50 counties) had the lowest due to their low population.
TOTAL VOTER LOSS
Overall a total of 5.6 million Kenyans in the strongholds of the 2 top candidates, did not take part in the 2003 Elections, out of which 2 million were registered to vote but did not for various reasons (no one has done any research as to why registered voters do not vote on the actual voting day), 3.6 million did not register at all for various reasons including lack of identity cards but some choose not to do so (boycott?) or lack of interest (Facebook generation?). Maybe voting needs to be made mandatory as in Australia, Turkey and Belgium. The difference between the 2007 and 2013 voter registration was only 42,662!
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CORD’S share of this potential voter loss was 3.1 million, which grows to 3.6 million when you add half of the fifty/fifty counties (475,000). Jubilee share was 1.6 million which grows to 2 million when you add the fifty/fifty counties (475,000).
Hence CORD had a potential voter loss of 1.5 million (Not Voted + Not Reg) more than Jubilee, which would have been enough to give Raila Odinga victory in the 2013 Presidential Elections, if most had registered and/or voted.
© 2015 STAN OYUNGA