EXCLUSIVE: LOW VOTER TURNOUT MAY HAVE COST RAILA THE PRESIDENCY

(By Hillary Ang’awa) (hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

SUMMARY
***2.2 MILLION OF 4.3 MILLION ‘NO-SHOW’ VOTERS WERE FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS & 50/50 (SWING) COUNTIES
***ONLY 4 COUNTIES FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS HAD TURN-OUT OF ABOVE 80% COMPARED WITH 12 FROM JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS
***3 NASA COUNTIES BECAME 50/50 COUNTIES AND ONE 50/50 COUNTY BECAME A JUBILEE COUNTY
***MOMBASA COUNTY HAS THE LOWEST VOTER TURN-OUT IN KENYA AT ONLY 59.45% WITH KIRINYAGA THE HIGHEST AT 87.15%

VOTER TURN-OUT

Low voter turnout may have cost Raila the 2017 Presidential election as the results released on 11/8/2017 on Form 34B show. Out of the 15 Counties that can be considered NASA strongholds (determined by a candidate getting above 65% of valid votes) only 4 had voter turn-out of above 80%:-
Homa Bay (84.71%)
Migori (83.20%)
Siaya (83.02%)
Kisumu (82.64%)

Out of the other 11 NASA counties, 3 had voter turnout of below 70%:-
Kwale (66.35%)
Kilifi (64.91%)
Mombasa (59.45%)

Jubilee Party had 12 of the 19 counties in its strongholds with voter turn-out of above 80%, with the 4 highest being above 85% and also the highest in the country:-
Kirinyaga (87.15%)
Murang’a (86.88%)
Nyeri (86.82%)
Nyandarua (86.56%)

Only 7 Jubilee counties were below 80% with Uasin Gishu having the lowest turn-out at 76.22%. Out of the 50/50 counties, only Narok had a voter turn-out of above 80% at 82.65%.

‘NO-SHOW’ VOTERS

A total of 4,372,275 out of 19.6 million registered voters did not turnout to vote on 8th August, 2017, representing 22.3% of all registered voters. Out this number, 1,677,381 were from NASA strongholds and 1,397,778 were from Jubilee strongholds, a variance of only 279,603. This clearly shows that even Jubilee strongholds suffered from voter apathy. Some of these ‘no-show’ voters may have since died after they were registered but the exact number was never established despite the voter audit undertaken by KPMG in June, 2017.

The 50/50 (swing) counties had 1,297,116 ‘no-show’ voters, with half from Nairobi. Assuming that half would have voted for NASA and the other half for Jubilee (640,000 each) then NASA’ s share of ‘no-show’ voters increases to 2.2 million and Jubilee’s to 2 million. In case the Supreme Court orders a repeat of the Presidential elections, then the ‘no-show’ voters may be encouraged to take part in order to determine the winner.

Nairobi County had the highest number of ‘no-show’ voters (615,151) followed by Mombasa with 235,469, Kakamega with 186,400 and Kilifi with 178,413.

STRONGHOLDS

Before the 2017 elections, CORD (now NASA) had 19 counties that were considered its stronghold (Raila won above 65% of valid votes in 2013) and Jubilee had 18 (Uhuru won more than 65% in 2013). But the 2017 elections appear to have dealt NASA a severe setback with the loss of 4 counties, Tana River, Turkana, Kisii and Nyamira to 50/50 (swing) category. A former 50/50 county in 2013, Marsabit, became a Jubilee county:-

NASA COUNTIES (WITH RAILA’S % OF VALID VOTES)

01 MOMBASA (69.76)
02 KWALE (74.82)
03 KILIFI (83.63)
06 TAITA-TAVETA (70.99)
15 KITUI (79.90)
16 MACHAKOS (80.98)
17 MAKUENI (90.57)
37 KAKAMEGA (87.31)
38 VIHIGA (89.39)
39 BUNGOMA (68.03)
40 BUSIA (86.82)
41 SIAYA (99.11)
42 KISUMU (97.91)
43 HOMA BAY (99.34)
44 MIGORI (85.07)

JUBILEE COUNTIES (WITH UHURU’S % OF VALID VOTES)

09 MANDERA (82.88)
10 MARSABiT (83.63)
12 MERU (88.82)
13 THARAKA-NITHI (93.15)
14 EMBU (92.10)
18 NYANDARUA (98.99)
19 NYERI (98.35)
20 KIRINYAGA (98.61)
21 MURANGA (97.89)
22 KIAMBU (92.63)
24 WEST POKOT (64.61)
27 UASIN GISHU (77.79)
28 ELGEYO MARAKWET (94.63)
29 NANDI (86.84)
30 BARINGO (84.78)
31 LAIKIPIA (89.11)
32 NAKURU (84.74)
35 KERICHO (92.78)
36 BOMET (87.04)

50/50 (SWING) COUNTIES (SHOWING UHURU & RAILA VALID VOTE %)

04 TANA RIVER (46.15) (51.85)
05 LAMU (48.57) (49.62)
07 GARISSA (48.38) (48.00)
08 WAJIR (50.98) (44.12)
11 ISIOLO (49.43) (34.98)
23 TURKANA (44.94) (54.11)
25 SAMBURU (49.64) (49.44)
26 TRANS NZOIA (44.60) (54.22)
33 NAROK (52.98) (45.88)
34 KAJIADO (57.15) (42.42)
45 KISII (43.16) (55.28)
46 NYAMIRA (52.00) (46.49)
47 NAIROBI (48.55) (50.85)

In NASA strongholds, Raila got 4.3 million votes (85.27%) and Uhuru got over 698,000 (13.65%).
In Jubilee strongholds, Uhuru got 5.6 million (90%) and Raila over 581,000 (9.22%).
In 50/50 (swing) counties both Uhuru and Raila had 1.8 million with Raila having a slight edge with 49.76% against Uhuru’s 48.90%.

The 2017 elections recorded a 76.77% turnout with 15.1 million valid votes cast out of 19.6 million registered voters. Uhuru’s votes as per Form 34B as declared by the Chairman of the IEBC on 11/8/2017 was 8,203,290 and Raila’s was 6,762,224. The results on the IEBC portal is subject of an election petition hence cannot be commented on.

REPORT-A-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-COUNTIES-AND-REGIONS-ALL.xlsx (34 downloads)
REPORT-B-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-JUBILEE-STRONGHOLDS.xlsx (21 downloads)
REPORT-C-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-NASA-STRONGHOLDS.xlsx (20 downloads)
REPORT-D-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-FIFTY-FIFTY-COUNTIES.xlsx (14 downloads)

NB: 2017 RESULTS FOR DIASPORA NOT INCLUDED IN UHURU & RAILA’S TOTALS.
NB: DATA SOURCE IS FORM 34B FROM IEBC WEBSITE THAT WAS USED TO DECLARE WINNER ON 11/8/2017 BUT ADJUSTED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ERROR IN TURKANA COUNTY AND KISUMU COUNTY DATA.

27/8/2017

(c) 2017 HILLARY ANG’AWA