‘TYRANNY OF NUMBERS’ WAS A POLITICAL MYTH

By Hillary Ang’awa

SUMMARY

By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8%).
Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9m hence missing its estimated voters by over 400,000. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 490,000. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 300,000.

INTRODUCTION

Unlike in past elections, Kenya party leaders were out in full force in January and February, 2017 on Get Out The Vote (GOTV) tours and rallies. They realised that the 2013 elections may have been won in December, 2012 after the voter registration was closed and political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi coined the famous phase ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ and correctly predicting that the Jubilee Coalition led by Uhuru Kenyatta will win the March 4th 2013 election by having registered more voters in its strongholds than the CORD coalition led by Raila Odinga. They all knew that the winner of the 2017 elections would be determined by the number of voters registered in their respective strongholds and battleground counties by 21st February, 2017.

TYRANNY OF NUMBERS IN 2013

The reality is that the 2013 elections was not won by ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ but by ‘Turnout of Numbers’. In fact CORD strongholds and Jubilee strongholds had registered almost equal number of voters in 2013 with CORD having registered 7.2 million and Jubilee 7.1 million out of the 14.3 million voters. This analysis was done by using the Kenya Election Database software which based each coalition’s stronghold county on results of the 2013 Presidential elections, where the candidate won more than 65% or more of valid votes in that county. Where both Uhuru and Raila had also most equal votes, then that county is considered ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battleground’. Hence CORD has 19 stronghold counties and Jubilee has 18 with 10 ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battlegrounds’ as follows:-

CORD/NASA COUNTIES
01 MOMBASA
02 KWALE
03 KILIFI
04 TANA RIVER
06 TAITA-TAVETA
15 KITUI
16 MACHAKOS
17 MAKUENI
23 TURKANA
37 KAKAMEGA
38 VIHIGA (Won by Mudavadi but now NASA)
39 BUNGOMA
40 BUSIA
41 SIAYA
42 KISUMU
43 HOMA BAY
44 MIGORI
45 KISII
46 NYAMIRA

JUBILEE COUNTIES
09 MANDERA
12 MERU
13 THARAKA-N
14 EMBU
18 NYANDARUA
19 NYERI
20 KIRINYAGA
21 MURANGA
22 KIAMBU
24 WEST POKOT
27 UASIN GISHU
28 ELGEYO MARA
29 NANDI
30 BARINGO
31 LAIKIPIA
32 NAKURU
35 KERICHO
36 BOMET

BATTLEGROUNDS (50/50) COUNTIES
05 LAMU
07 GARISSA
08 WAJIR
10 MARSABIT
11 ISIOLO
25 SAMBURU
26 TRANS NZOIA
33 NAROK
34 KAJIADO
47 NAIROBI

Note that half of ‘Battleground’ county voters were allocated to each coalition to arrive at the coalition’s total registered voters.
While Mutahi Ngunyi may have been wrong on the ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ as by the time he was making his prediction, not all strongholds or battleground counties were known, it is the large turn-out in Jubilee strongholds that gave Uhuru victory in 2013. Out of the 12.2 million valid votes cast, Uhuru received 6.1 million, Raila 5.3 million, Mudavadi 483,000 and the others 223,000.
Out of the 14.3 million registered voters, 2.1 million did not vote, out of which 700,000 were from Jubilee strongholds and 1.2 million were from CORD strongholds. Even when Mudavadi’s votes were added to Raila’s total, he would have received only 5.8 million votes. A run-off may have given Raila victory if most of his 1.2 million ‘stay away’ voters in round one had turned up to vote in the run-off as he would have received 7 million against Uhuru’s 6.8 million.

TYRANNY OF NUMBERS IN 2017

Most politicians and political commentators have stated that the 2017 elections will be won on 21st February, 2017 at the conclusion of the 2nd Mass Voter Registration, which was the last before the 8th August, 2017 elections. Whichever Coalition registered the most voters in its strongholds is sure of victory. There were conflicting figures as if it was Jubilee or NASA that had registered the most, but this matter can now be settled by using IEBC data and the data from the Kenya Election Database software, which were transferred to Excel spreadsheets. The data is summarized as follows:-

(1) Nasa strongholds have 2017 projected population of 21m (43.6%) against 17.7m (36.8%) for Jubilee strongholds. Battleground have 9.4m out of total population of 48.3 million.
(2) By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8%).
(3) During MVR I in 2016, NASA strongholds had registered 394,058 more voters than Jubilee’s. In MVR II in 2017, Jubilee strongholds registered 13,484 more voters than NASA’s.
(4) Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9 hence missing its estimated voters by 446,269. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 491,305. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 311,934.
(5) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to NASA strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 10,029,013 (50.9%) out of 19.6m.
(6) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to Jubilee strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 9,648,449 (49.03%) out of 19.6m.
(7) NASA has registered 380,564 more voters as at 21-7-2017 than Jubilee (10,029,013 against 9,648,449).
(8) By 21-2-2017 NASA had added 2,820,543 (39.1%) voters to its 2013 total of 7,208,470 hence now has 10,029,013 voters.
(9) By 21-2-2017 Jubilee had added 2,507,023 voters (35.1%) to its 2013 total of 7,141,426 hence now has 9,648,449 voters.
(10) By 21-2-2017 total registered voters had increased from 14,349,896 in 2013 to 19,677,463 an increase of 5,327,567 (27%).
NB: Note that not all voters in a stronghold of a coalition will vote for that particular coalition hence the above figures is only an approximate based on the voting trends of the 2013 elections.

MOST IMPROVED VOTER REG RANKING 2013 TO 2017

1 MOMBASA-NASA-10th to 7th (gained 3 places)
2 KITUI-NASA-16th to 13th (gained 3 places)
3 BUSIA-NASA-27th to 24th (gained 3 places)
4 TRANS-NZOIA-Battleground-28th to 26th (gained 2)
5 KWALE-NASA-from 32nd to 30th (gained 2 places)

WORST VOTER REG RANKING FROM 2013 TO 2017

1 KISII-NASA-8th to 11th (lost 3 places)
2 NYERI-JUBILEE-12th to 15th (lost 3 places)
3 MURANGA-JUBILEE-6th to 8th (lost 2 places)
4 UASIN GISHU-JUBILEE-14th to 16th (lost 2 places)
5 NYANDARUA-JUBILEE-25th to 27th (lost 2 places)
6 BOMET-JUBILEE-26th to 28th (lost 2 places)
7 ELGEYO-MARAKWET-JUBILEE-36th to 38th (lost 2)

2017 VOTER REG vis-à-vis POPULATION RANKING-MOST POTENTIAL VOTERS REGISTERED

1 KIRINYAGA-JUBILEE-Ranked 36th in population but 22nd in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 16)
2 NYERI-JUBILEE-Ranked 27th in population but 15th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 12)
3 KAJIADO-Battleground-Ranked 28th in population but 19th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 9)
4 MOMBASA-NASA-Ranked 15th in population but 7th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 8)
5 EMBU-JUBILEE-Ranked 37th in population but 29th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 8)

2017 VOTER REG vis-à-vis POPULATION RANKING-LEAST POTENTIAL VOTERS REGISTERED

1 MANDERA-JUBILEE-Ranked 10th in population but 39th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 29)
2 TURKANA-NASA-Ranked 19th in population but 36th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 17)
3 WAJIR-Battleground-Ranked 29th in population but 41st in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 12)
4 GARISSA-Battleground-Ranked 31st in population but 40th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 9)
5 NAROK-Battleground-Ranked 20th in population but 25th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 5)

Note: This data provides the clearest evidence that the 2009 census for Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Turkana may have been manipulated resulting in more people than what is on the ground. Attempts by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to repeat the census was blocked by the High Court, The low voter registration figures vis-a-vis the population shows the 2009 population census was not correct as can be seen by Mandera’s huge variance of negative 39.

CONCLUSION

From the above data it can now be concluded there will be no ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ in 2017 as both Jubilee and NASA have registered almost equal number of voters hence it will now be ‘Turnout of Numbers’ that will determine the winner of the 2017 elections.

Excel spreadsheets used in this report can be downloaded.

28th April, 2017
(c) 2017 Hillary Ang’awa
The Kenya Election Database version 2.1 software is a product of Systex Solutions P O Box 2523-00200 Nairobi
Tel 0722751753 Email: systexsolutions@yahoo.com

REPORT-1A-2017-COUNTIES-REGISTERED-VOTERS-AS-AT-21-2-2017-BY-REGION.xlsx (48 downloads)

 

REPORT-1B-2017-COUNTIES-REG-VOTER-RANKING-AS-AT-21-2-2017.xlsx (21 downloads)

 

REPORT-1C-2017-COUNTIES-REG-VOTER-RANKING-AS-AT-21-2-2017-2013-VOTE-RANKING.xlsx (19 downloads)

 

REPORT-1D-2017-COUNTIES-REG-VOTER-RANKING-AS-AT-21-2-2017-POP-RANKING.xlsx (20 downloads)

EXCLUSIVE: ELECTION SOFTWARE PREDICTS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF IN SEPTEMBER, 2017

By Hillary Ang’awa

INTRODUCTION

Kenya may be heading for its first ever Presidential Election run-off in September, 2017 as both Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Party  and Raila Odinga of  the National Super Alliance (NASA) may both fail to attain the 50% plus 1 threshold in the 8th August, 2017 elections. This prediction has been reached after using the Kenya Election Database software to analyze the past voting patterns and trends, voter registration as at 21/2/2017, ethnic block votes and demographics.

The IEBC registered 19,677,463 voters as at 21-2-2017 (minus Diaspora, Prisoners and University students).
The Kenya Election Database software, the only election data analysis and strategic election software for
Kenya elections, predicted in November, 2015, that there will be 19,320,493 registered voters in 2017,
which is only 356,970 less than the actual number attained by the IEBC after the end of the 2nd Mass Voter
Registration on 21st February, 2017. It is expected that the IEBC figure will reduce by about 500,000 after
auditing the voter register to remove duplicates and dead voters.

Recently the Leader of The Majority, Aden Duale, claimed that Jubilee will win the August elections by 3 million votes in only three counties (including Nakuru) but his statement assumed 100% turn-out and no NASA voters exist in Nakuru and that NASA has no counties in their strongholds to counter the votes from these three counties, and this report will prove him wrong.

In opinion polls, the respondents are selected at random but from a representative group to represent the
opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio.
In both 2007 and 2013, opinion polls in Kenya were not accurate when the final results were announced.
In voting trend analysis, the results of past elections are used to analyse the possible outcome of a
future election based on actual voter registration and expected turn-out from each stronghold county
of a coalition.

IDENTIFYING COALITION STRONGHOLDS

The Kenya Election Database software based each coalition’s stronghold county on results
of the 2013 Presidential elections, where the candidate won more than 65% or more of valid votes
in that county. Where both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga had also most equal votes, then that county is
considered ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battleground’. Hence CORD has 19 stronghold counties and Jubilee has
18 with 10 ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battlegrounds’ as follows:-

NASA COUNTIES
01 MOMBASA
02 KWALE
03 KILIFI
04 TANA RIVER
06 TAITA-TAVETA
15 KITUI
16 MACHAKOS
17 MAKUENI
23 TURKANA
37 KAKAMEGA
38 VIHIGA (Won by Mudavadi but now NASA)
39 BUNGOMA
40 BUSIA
41 SIAYA
42 KISUMU
43 HOMA BAY
44 MIGORI
45 KISII
46 NYAMIRA

JUBILEE COUNTIES
09 MANDERA
12 MERU
13 THARAKA-N
14 EMBU
18 NYANDARUA
19 NYERI
20 KIRINYAGA
21 MURANGA
22 KIAMBU
24 WEST POKOT
27 UASIN GISHU
28 ELGEYO MARA
29 NANDI
30 BARINGO
31 LAIKIPIA
32 NAKURU
35 KERICHO
36 BOMET

BATTLEGROUNDS (50/50) COUNTIES
05 LAMU
07 GARISSA
08 WAJIR
10 MARSABIT
11 ISIOLO
25 SAMBURU
26 TRANS NZOIA
33 NAROK
34 KAJIADO
47 NAIROBI

2017 POLITICAL ALLIANCES

In the run-up to the August, 2017 elections, the NASA coalition has yet to name its flag bearer as at
31st March, 2017 hence the possibility of a dramatic shift in voting pattern may occur if Kalonzo Musyoka,
Party Leader of Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya leaves NASA and either runs alone for the Presidency or joins Jubilee Party in a coalition. It is expected the Kamba majority counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui will vote for him or Uhuru Kenyatta. If this happens NASA will be denied the nearly 2 million Kamba votes including 1.5 million from the three Kamba majority counties and 500,000 Kambas in the diaspora, mainly in Nairobi and the Coast Region.

The South Rift ‘rebellion’ by Governor Isaac Rutto and his Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM), despite Rutto joining NASA as a principal, is expected to fade away and most Kalenjins will vote for Uhuru for President, with CCM contesting other seats, but his battle with Deputy President William Ruto will continue. KANU has already indicated that it will support Uhuru while contesting other seats in its Rift Valley stronghold, again fighting DP Ruto’s influence. The other counties are expected to vote as they did in 2013, including Mandera with its unique ‘negotiated’ democracy where clan elders select candidates for all seats from MCAs to Governor and the incumbents do not defend their seats. The so called ‘disgruntled’ voters in Meru and Tharaka Nithi will also fall into line and support Uhuru. Expect Uhuru’s votes in the Coast and Western to decrease slightly from 2013 as the Jubilee Party fails to make any impact in this two Regions.

‘TYRANNY OF NUMBERS’ IS NOW ‘TURN-OUT OF NUMBERS’

In my blog ‘Tyranny of Numbers was a political myth’ posted on the Kenya Election Database Facebook
page on 12th March, 2017, I concluded, after analysing registration data from the IEBC and data from the
Kenya Election Database software and using Excel spreadsheets:-
(1) Nasa strongholds have 2017 projected population of 21m (43.6%) against 17.7m (36.8%) for Jubilee strongholds. Battleground have 9.4m out of total population of 48.3 million.
(2) By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8m).
(3) Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9m hence missing its estimated voters by 446,269. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 491,305. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 311,934.
(4) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to NASA strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 10,029,013 (50.9%) out of 19.6m.
(6) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to Jubilee strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 9,648,449 (49.03%) out of 19.6m.
(7) NASA has registered 380,564 more voters as at 21-7-2017 than Jubilee (10,029,013 against 9,648,449).

From the above figures it is clear that both NASA and Jubilee have registered almost the same number of voters with NASA having 10.6m against 9.6m for Jubilee, a variance of only 380,564 in favour of NASA. Hence the Coalition that turns-out most of its registered voters to vote on 8th August, 2017 is sure to win the elections.

PREDICTING THE WINNER OF THE 2017 ELECTIONS

The prediction of a run-off after the August elections was reached by calculating each counties projected vote at eighty per cent of its registered voters. Eighty per cent is the average percentage of adults who actually vote in Kenya elections. For example Mombasa County has 596,485 registered voters in 2017, hence 80% of this is 477,188 will be its projected votes in 2017. But since Mombasa is a NASA county but has Jubilee voters, hence I used the 2013 Presidential election to determine the breakdown, which was 72% (NASA) and 24% (Jubilee). The Mombasa share of votes is then calculated at 72% of 477,188 to get NASA’s share (343,575) and 24% of 477,188 to get Jubilee’s share (114,525). Total projected votes for both coalitions will be 458,100 minus other parties. This formula is used for each county and is summarised below:-

1) IF VOTER TURN OUT IS 80 % THEN NASA’S TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 7.7 MILLION (48.93%) AND JUBILEE’S 7.6 MILLION (48.37%) (VARIANCE OF 87,000). TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 15.7 MILLION IF 80% TURN-OUT. A NARROW NASA WIN BUT BOTH FAIL TO GET 50% + 1 HENCE RUN-OFF IN SEPT, 2017. THIS IS BECAUSE THE 100% PROJECTED VOTE (ALL CANDIDATES) IS 15.7 MILLION HENCE 50% IS 7.8 MILLION.

2) IF VOTER TURN OUT IS 80 % IN BATTLEGROUND COUNTIES THEN NASA’S PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 1.6 MILLION (50.51%) AND JUBILEE’S 1.5 MILLION (46.10%) (VARIANCE OF 143,000). TOTAL PROJ VOTES WILL BE 3.2 MILLION.

3) IF TURN-OUT IS 80% THEN NASA STRONGHOLDS ARE PROJECTED TO HAVE 6.3 MILLION VOTES, JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS 6 MILLION AND BATTLEGROUNDS 3.2 MILLION. WHEN HALF OF BATTLEGROUNDS ARE ADDED TO EACH COALITIONS’ VOTES THEN NASA IS PROJECTED TO HAVE 7.7 MILLION AND JUBILEE 7.6 MILLION.

4) IN CASE THE KAMBA LEAVE NASA AND GO IT ALONE IN 2017 ELECTIONS, THEN NASA VOTES WILL REDUCE TO 6.6 MILLION. IF KAMBAS VOTE WITH JUBILEE THEN JUBILEE’S PROJECTED VOTES WILL INCREASE TO 8.6 MILLION (VARIANCE OF 2 MILLION). JUBILEE WINS IN FIRST ROUND.

5) OUT OF THE 19.6 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS, 7.9 MILLION ARE FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS AND 7.6 MILLION FROM JUBILEE’S AND 4 MILLION FROM BATTLEGROUNDS.

6) AFTER CLOSURE OF VOTER REGISTRATION ON 27-2-2017, NASA STRONGHOLDS HAD REGISTERED ONLY 380,000 MORE VOTERS THAN JUBILEE AND IS PROJECTED TO HAVE ONLY 269,000 VOTES MORE THAN JUBILEE IF TURN-OUT IS 80% WHEN YOU EXCLUDE BATTLEGROUNDS. THIS MEANS NASA DID NOT IMPROVE ITS NUMBERS IN THE 2016/2017 VOTER REGISTRATION DESPITE HAVING 3 MILLION MORE PEOPLE IN ITS STRONGHOLDS THAN JUBILEE (21 MILLION VS 17.7 MILLION).

CONCLUSION

The above figures are a projection of the 8th August, 2017 election results based on voter registration and past voting patterns and trends if voter turn-out is 80% in all 47 counties.Of course not all counties will achieve a 80% turn-out due to voter apathy and other factors but both coalitions will have to undertake massive GOTV (Get out the vote) campaigns in order to achieve 80% or higher turn-out, failure to which the other side will carry the day, as Jubilee did in 2013 with only a mere 8,000 votes that saved them from a run-off. The 1.2 million ‘no show’ CORD voters in 2013 would have been enough to Raila give victory. NASA can only win if it remains united as loss of the 2 million Kamba ethnic block vote will prove to be fatal.

Jubilee knows that they can no longer rely on the ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ which has been proved to be an illusion and must now hope Kalonzo pulls out of NASA to ensure their victory in the first round. They should also avoid voter apathy when some supporters in their strongholds may not bother to vote. In the US elections Hillary Clinton missed making history as the first woman President by just 70,000 votes in the electoral colleges of 3 states despite winning the popular vote by 3 million. Even rigging is no longer an option with stringent controls and the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) expected to in place before June, 2017.

The higher the turn-out the less likely chances of rigging, since you can only rig to replace ‘no-show’ voters. A 99% voter turn-out will make rigging almost impossible.

The four Excel spread-sheets (Reports 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D) used to compile can be downloaded.

28th APRIL, 2017
© 2017 Hillary Ang’awa (Tel no 0722751753 Email: hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

The Kenya Election Database version 2.1 is a product of Systex Solutions P O Box 2523-00200 Nairobi
Tel 0722751753 Email: systexsolutions@yahoo.com

REPORT-2A-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-ALL-COUNTIES.xlsx (80 downloads)

 

REPORT-2B-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-NASA.xlsx (25 downloads)

 

REPORT-2C-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-JUBILEE.xlsx (28 downloads)

 

REPORT-2D-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-BATTLEGROUNDS.xlsx (40 downloads)