EXCLUSIVE: LOW VOTER TURNOUT MAY HAVE COST RAILA THE PRESIDENCY

(By Hillary Ang’awa) (hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

SUMMARY
***2.2 MILLION OF 4.3 MILLION ‘NO-SHOW’ VOTERS WERE FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS & 50/50 (SWING) COUNTIES
***ONLY 4 COUNTIES FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS HAD TURN-OUT OF ABOVE 80% COMPARED WITH 12 FROM JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS
***3 NASA COUNTIES BECAME 50/50 COUNTIES AND ONE 50/50 COUNTY BECAME A JUBILEE COUNTY
***MOMBASA COUNTY HAS THE LOWEST VOTER TURN-OUT IN KENYA AT ONLY 59.45% WITH KIRINYAGA THE HIGHEST AT 87.15%

VOTER TURN-OUT

Low voter turnout may have cost Raila the 2017 Presidential election as the results released on 11/8/2017 on Form 34B show. Out of the 15 Counties that can be considered NASA strongholds (determined by a candidate getting above 65% of valid votes) only 4 had voter turn-out of above 80%:-
Homa Bay (84.71%)
Migori (83.20%)
Siaya (83.02%)
Kisumu (82.64%)

Out of the other 11 NASA counties, 3 had voter turnout of below 70%:-
Kwale (66.35%)
Kilifi (64.91%)
Mombasa (59.45%)

Jubilee Party had 12 of the 19 counties in its strongholds with voter turn-out of above 80%, with the 4 highest being above 85% and also the highest in the country:-
Kirinyaga (87.15%)
Murang’a (86.88%)
Nyeri (86.82%)
Nyandarua (86.56%)

Only 7 Jubilee counties were below 80% with Uasin Gishu having the lowest turn-out at 76.22%. Out of the 50/50 counties, only Narok had a voter turn-out of above 80% at 82.65%.

‘NO-SHOW’ VOTERS

A total of 4,372,275 out of 19.6 million registered voters did not turnout to vote on 8th August, 2017, representing 22.3% of all registered voters. Out this number, 1,677,381 were from NASA strongholds and 1,397,778 were from Jubilee strongholds, a variance of only 279,603. This clearly shows that even Jubilee strongholds suffered from voter apathy. Some of these ‘no-show’ voters may have since died after they were registered but the exact number was never established despite the voter audit undertaken by KPMG in June, 2017.

The 50/50 (swing) counties had 1,297,116 ‘no-show’ voters, with half from Nairobi. Assuming that half would have voted for NASA and the other half for Jubilee (640,000 each) then NASA’ s share of ‘no-show’ voters increases to 2.2 million and Jubilee’s to 2 million. In case the Supreme Court orders a repeat of the Presidential elections, then the ‘no-show’ voters may be encouraged to take part in order to determine the winner.

Nairobi County had the highest number of ‘no-show’ voters (615,151) followed by Mombasa with 235,469, Kakamega with 186,400 and Kilifi with 178,413.

STRONGHOLDS

Before the 2017 elections, CORD (now NASA) had 19 counties that were considered its stronghold (Raila won above 65% of valid votes in 2013) and Jubilee had 18 (Uhuru won more than 65% in 2013). But the 2017 elections appear to have dealt NASA a severe setback with the loss of 4 counties, Tana River, Turkana, Kisii and Nyamira to 50/50 (swing) category. A former 50/50 county in 2013, Marsabit, became a Jubilee county:-

NASA COUNTIES (WITH RAILA’S % OF VALID VOTES)

01 MOMBASA (69.76)
02 KWALE (74.82)
03 KILIFI (83.63)
06 TAITA-TAVETA (70.99)
15 KITUI (79.90)
16 MACHAKOS (80.98)
17 MAKUENI (90.57)
37 KAKAMEGA (87.31)
38 VIHIGA (89.39)
39 BUNGOMA (68.03)
40 BUSIA (86.82)
41 SIAYA (99.11)
42 KISUMU (97.91)
43 HOMA BAY (99.34)
44 MIGORI (85.07)

JUBILEE COUNTIES (WITH UHURU’S % OF VALID VOTES)

09 MANDERA (82.88)
10 MARSABiT (83.63)
12 MERU (88.82)
13 THARAKA-NITHI (93.15)
14 EMBU (92.10)
18 NYANDARUA (98.99)
19 NYERI (98.35)
20 KIRINYAGA (98.61)
21 MURANGA (97.89)
22 KIAMBU (92.63)
24 WEST POKOT (64.61)
27 UASIN GISHU (77.79)
28 ELGEYO MARAKWET (94.63)
29 NANDI (86.84)
30 BARINGO (84.78)
31 LAIKIPIA (89.11)
32 NAKURU (84.74)
35 KERICHO (92.78)
36 BOMET (87.04)

50/50 (SWING) COUNTIES (SHOWING UHURU & RAILA VALID VOTE %)

04 TANA RIVER (46.15) (51.85)
05 LAMU (48.57) (49.62)
07 GARISSA (48.38) (48.00)
08 WAJIR (50.98) (44.12)
11 ISIOLO (49.43) (34.98)
23 TURKANA (44.94) (54.11)
25 SAMBURU (49.64) (49.44)
26 TRANS NZOIA (44.60) (54.22)
33 NAROK (52.98) (45.88)
34 KAJIADO (57.15) (42.42)
45 KISII (43.16) (55.28)
46 NYAMIRA (52.00) (46.49)
47 NAIROBI (48.55) (50.85)

In NASA strongholds, Raila got 4.3 million votes (85.27%) and Uhuru got over 698,000 (13.65%).
In Jubilee strongholds, Uhuru got 5.6 million (90%) and Raila over 581,000 (9.22%).
In 50/50 (swing) counties both Uhuru and Raila had 1.8 million with Raila having a slight edge with 49.76% against Uhuru’s 48.90%.

The 2017 elections recorded a 76.77% turnout with 15.1 million valid votes cast out of 19.6 million registered voters. Uhuru’s votes as per Form 34B as declared by the Chairman of the IEBC on 11/8/2017 was 8,203,290 and Raila’s was 6,762,224. The results on the IEBC portal is subject of an election petition hence cannot be commented on.

REPORT-A-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-COUNTIES-AND-REGIONS-ALL.xlsx (36 downloads)
REPORT-B-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-JUBILEE-STRONGHOLDS.xlsx (23 downloads)
REPORT-C-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-NASA-STRONGHOLDS.xlsx (23 downloads)
REPORT-D-2017-ELECTION-RESULTS-FIFTY-FIFTY-COUNTIES.xlsx (15 downloads)

NB: 2017 RESULTS FOR DIASPORA NOT INCLUDED IN UHURU & RAILA’S TOTALS.
NB: DATA SOURCE IS FORM 34B FROM IEBC WEBSITE THAT WAS USED TO DECLARE WINNER ON 11/8/2017 BUT ADJUSTED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ERROR IN TURKANA COUNTY AND KISUMU COUNTY DATA.

27/8/2017

(c) 2017 HILLARY ANG’AWA

‘TYRANNY OF NUMBERS’ WAS A POLITICAL MYTH

By Hillary Ang’awa

SUMMARY

By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8%).
Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9m hence missing its estimated voters by over 400,000. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 490,000. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 300,000.

INTRODUCTION

Unlike in past elections, Kenya party leaders were out in full force in January and February, 2017 on Get Out The Vote (GOTV) tours and rallies. They realised that the 2013 elections may have been won in December, 2012 after the voter registration was closed and political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi coined the famous phase ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ and correctly predicting that the Jubilee Coalition led by Uhuru Kenyatta will win the March 4th 2013 election by having registered more voters in its strongholds than the CORD coalition led by Raila Odinga. They all knew that the winner of the 2017 elections would be determined by the number of voters registered in their respective strongholds and battleground counties by 21st February, 2017.

TYRANNY OF NUMBERS IN 2013

The reality is that the 2013 elections was not won by ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ but by ‘Turnout of Numbers’. In fact CORD strongholds and Jubilee strongholds had registered almost equal number of voters in 2013 with CORD having registered 7.2 million and Jubilee 7.1 million out of the 14.3 million voters. This analysis was done by using the Kenya Election Database software which based each coalition’s stronghold county on results of the 2013 Presidential elections, where the candidate won more than 65% or more of valid votes in that county. Where both Uhuru and Raila had also most equal votes, then that county is considered ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battleground’. Hence CORD has 19 stronghold counties and Jubilee has 18 with 10 ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battlegrounds’ as follows:-

CORD/NASA COUNTIES
01 MOMBASA
02 KWALE
03 KILIFI
04 TANA RIVER
06 TAITA-TAVETA
15 KITUI
16 MACHAKOS
17 MAKUENI
23 TURKANA
37 KAKAMEGA
38 VIHIGA (Won by Mudavadi but now NASA)
39 BUNGOMA
40 BUSIA
41 SIAYA
42 KISUMU
43 HOMA BAY
44 MIGORI
45 KISII
46 NYAMIRA

JUBILEE COUNTIES
09 MANDERA
12 MERU
13 THARAKA-N
14 EMBU
18 NYANDARUA
19 NYERI
20 KIRINYAGA
21 MURANGA
22 KIAMBU
24 WEST POKOT
27 UASIN GISHU
28 ELGEYO MARA
29 NANDI
30 BARINGO
31 LAIKIPIA
32 NAKURU
35 KERICHO
36 BOMET

BATTLEGROUNDS (50/50) COUNTIES
05 LAMU
07 GARISSA
08 WAJIR
10 MARSABIT
11 ISIOLO
25 SAMBURU
26 TRANS NZOIA
33 NAROK
34 KAJIADO
47 NAIROBI

Note that half of ‘Battleground’ county voters were allocated to each coalition to arrive at the coalition’s total registered voters.
While Mutahi Ngunyi may have been wrong on the ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ as by the time he was making his prediction, not all strongholds or battleground counties were known, it is the large turn-out in Jubilee strongholds that gave Uhuru victory in 2013. Out of the 12.2 million valid votes cast, Uhuru received 6.1 million, Raila 5.3 million, Mudavadi 483,000 and the others 223,000.
Out of the 14.3 million registered voters, 2.1 million did not vote, out of which 700,000 were from Jubilee strongholds and 1.2 million were from CORD strongholds. Even when Mudavadi’s votes were added to Raila’s total, he would have received only 5.8 million votes. A run-off may have given Raila victory if most of his 1.2 million ‘stay away’ voters in round one had turned up to vote in the run-off as he would have received 7 million against Uhuru’s 6.8 million.

TYRANNY OF NUMBERS IN 2017

Most politicians and political commentators have stated that the 2017 elections will be won on 21st February, 2017 at the conclusion of the 2nd Mass Voter Registration, which was the last before the 8th August, 2017 elections. Whichever Coalition registered the most voters in its strongholds is sure of victory. There were conflicting figures as if it was Jubilee or NASA that had registered the most, but this matter can now be settled by using IEBC data and the data from the Kenya Election Database software, which were transferred to Excel spreadsheets. The data is summarized as follows:-

(1) Nasa strongholds have 2017 projected population of 21m (43.6%) against 17.7m (36.8%) for Jubilee strongholds. Battleground have 9.4m out of total population of 48.3 million.
(2) By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8%).
(3) During MVR I in 2016, NASA strongholds had registered 394,058 more voters than Jubilee’s. In MVR II in 2017, Jubilee strongholds registered 13,484 more voters than NASA’s.
(4) Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9 hence missing its estimated voters by 446,269. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 491,305. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 311,934.
(5) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to NASA strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 10,029,013 (50.9%) out of 19.6m.
(6) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to Jubilee strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 9,648,449 (49.03%) out of 19.6m.
(7) NASA has registered 380,564 more voters as at 21-7-2017 than Jubilee (10,029,013 against 9,648,449).
(8) By 21-2-2017 NASA had added 2,820,543 (39.1%) voters to its 2013 total of 7,208,470 hence now has 10,029,013 voters.
(9) By 21-2-2017 Jubilee had added 2,507,023 voters (35.1%) to its 2013 total of 7,141,426 hence now has 9,648,449 voters.
(10) By 21-2-2017 total registered voters had increased from 14,349,896 in 2013 to 19,677,463 an increase of 5,327,567 (27%).
NB: Note that not all voters in a stronghold of a coalition will vote for that particular coalition hence the above figures is only an approximate based on the voting trends of the 2013 elections.

MOST IMPROVED VOTER REG RANKING 2013 TO 2017

1 MOMBASA-NASA-10th to 7th (gained 3 places)
2 KITUI-NASA-16th to 13th (gained 3 places)
3 BUSIA-NASA-27th to 24th (gained 3 places)
4 TRANS-NZOIA-Battleground-28th to 26th (gained 2)
5 KWALE-NASA-from 32nd to 30th (gained 2 places)

WORST VOTER REG RANKING FROM 2013 TO 2017

1 KISII-NASA-8th to 11th (lost 3 places)
2 NYERI-JUBILEE-12th to 15th (lost 3 places)
3 MURANGA-JUBILEE-6th to 8th (lost 2 places)
4 UASIN GISHU-JUBILEE-14th to 16th (lost 2 places)
5 NYANDARUA-JUBILEE-25th to 27th (lost 2 places)
6 BOMET-JUBILEE-26th to 28th (lost 2 places)
7 ELGEYO-MARAKWET-JUBILEE-36th to 38th (lost 2)

2017 VOTER REG vis-à-vis POPULATION RANKING-MOST POTENTIAL VOTERS REGISTERED

1 KIRINYAGA-JUBILEE-Ranked 36th in population but 22nd in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 16)
2 NYERI-JUBILEE-Ranked 27th in population but 15th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 12)
3 KAJIADO-Battleground-Ranked 28th in population but 19th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 9)
4 MOMBASA-NASA-Ranked 15th in population but 7th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 8)
5 EMBU-JUBILEE-Ranked 37th in population but 29th in 2017 voter reg (pos variance of 8)

2017 VOTER REG vis-à-vis POPULATION RANKING-LEAST POTENTIAL VOTERS REGISTERED

1 MANDERA-JUBILEE-Ranked 10th in population but 39th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 29)
2 TURKANA-NASA-Ranked 19th in population but 36th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 17)
3 WAJIR-Battleground-Ranked 29th in population but 41st in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 12)
4 GARISSA-Battleground-Ranked 31st in population but 40th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 9)
5 NAROK-Battleground-Ranked 20th in population but 25th in 2017 voter reg (neg variance of 5)

Note: This data provides the clearest evidence that the 2009 census for Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Turkana may have been manipulated resulting in more people than what is on the ground. Attempts by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to repeat the census was blocked by the High Court, The low voter registration figures vis-a-vis the population shows the 2009 population census was not correct as can be seen by Mandera’s huge variance of negative 39.

CONCLUSION

From the above data it can now be concluded there will be no ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ in 2017 as both Jubilee and NASA have registered almost equal number of voters hence it will now be ‘Turnout of Numbers’ that will determine the winner of the 2017 elections.

Excel spreadsheets used in this report can be downloaded.

28th April, 2017
(c) 2017 Hillary Ang’awa
The Kenya Election Database version 2.1 software is a product of Systex Solutions P O Box 2523-00200 Nairobi
Tel 0722751753 Email: systexsolutions@yahoo.com

REPORT-1A-2017-COUNTIES-REGISTERED-VOTERS-AS-AT-21-2-2017-BY-REGION.xlsx (50 downloads)

 

REPORT-1B-2017-COUNTIES-REG-VOTER-RANKING-AS-AT-21-2-2017.xlsx (22 downloads)

 

REPORT-1C-2017-COUNTIES-REG-VOTER-RANKING-AS-AT-21-2-2017-2013-VOTE-RANKING.xlsx (21 downloads)

 

REPORT-1D-2017-COUNTIES-REG-VOTER-RANKING-AS-AT-21-2-2017-POP-RANKING.xlsx (22 downloads)

EXCLUSIVE: ELECTION SOFTWARE PREDICTS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF IN SEPTEMBER, 2017

By Hillary Ang’awa

INTRODUCTION

Kenya may be heading for its first ever Presidential Election run-off in September, 2017 as both Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Party  and Raila Odinga of  the National Super Alliance (NASA) may both fail to attain the 50% plus 1 threshold in the 8th August, 2017 elections. This prediction has been reached after using the Kenya Election Database software to analyze the past voting patterns and trends, voter registration as at 21/2/2017, ethnic block votes and demographics.

The IEBC registered 19,677,463 voters as at 21-2-2017 (minus Diaspora, Prisoners and University students).
The Kenya Election Database software, the only election data analysis and strategic election software for
Kenya elections, predicted in November, 2015, that there will be 19,320,493 registered voters in 2017,
which is only 356,970 less than the actual number attained by the IEBC after the end of the 2nd Mass Voter
Registration on 21st February, 2017. It is expected that the IEBC figure will reduce by about 500,000 after
auditing the voter register to remove duplicates and dead voters.

Recently the Leader of The Majority, Aden Duale, claimed that Jubilee will win the August elections by 3 million votes in only three counties (including Nakuru) but his statement assumed 100% turn-out and no NASA voters exist in Nakuru and that NASA has no counties in their strongholds to counter the votes from these three counties, and this report will prove him wrong.

In opinion polls, the respondents are selected at random but from a representative group to represent the
opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio.
In both 2007 and 2013, opinion polls in Kenya were not accurate when the final results were announced.
In voting trend analysis, the results of past elections are used to analyse the possible outcome of a
future election based on actual voter registration and expected turn-out from each stronghold county
of a coalition.

IDENTIFYING COALITION STRONGHOLDS

The Kenya Election Database software based each coalition’s stronghold county on results
of the 2013 Presidential elections, where the candidate won more than 65% or more of valid votes
in that county. Where both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga had also most equal votes, then that county is
considered ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battleground’. Hence CORD has 19 stronghold counties and Jubilee has
18 with 10 ‘fifty/fifty’ or ‘battlegrounds’ as follows:-

NASA COUNTIES
01 MOMBASA
02 KWALE
03 KILIFI
04 TANA RIVER
06 TAITA-TAVETA
15 KITUI
16 MACHAKOS
17 MAKUENI
23 TURKANA
37 KAKAMEGA
38 VIHIGA (Won by Mudavadi but now NASA)
39 BUNGOMA
40 BUSIA
41 SIAYA
42 KISUMU
43 HOMA BAY
44 MIGORI
45 KISII
46 NYAMIRA

JUBILEE COUNTIES
09 MANDERA
12 MERU
13 THARAKA-N
14 EMBU
18 NYANDARUA
19 NYERI
20 KIRINYAGA
21 MURANGA
22 KIAMBU
24 WEST POKOT
27 UASIN GISHU
28 ELGEYO MARA
29 NANDI
30 BARINGO
31 LAIKIPIA
32 NAKURU
35 KERICHO
36 BOMET

BATTLEGROUNDS (50/50) COUNTIES
05 LAMU
07 GARISSA
08 WAJIR
10 MARSABIT
11 ISIOLO
25 SAMBURU
26 TRANS NZOIA
33 NAROK
34 KAJIADO
47 NAIROBI

2017 POLITICAL ALLIANCES

In the run-up to the August, 2017 elections, the NASA coalition has yet to name its flag bearer as at
31st March, 2017 hence the possibility of a dramatic shift in voting pattern may occur if Kalonzo Musyoka,
Party Leader of Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya leaves NASA and either runs alone for the Presidency or joins Jubilee Party in a coalition. It is expected the Kamba majority counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui will vote for him or Uhuru Kenyatta. If this happens NASA will be denied the nearly 2 million Kamba votes including 1.5 million from the three Kamba majority counties and 500,000 Kambas in the diaspora, mainly in Nairobi and the Coast Region.

The South Rift ‘rebellion’ by Governor Isaac Rutto and his Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM), despite Rutto joining NASA as a principal, is expected to fade away and most Kalenjins will vote for Uhuru for President, with CCM contesting other seats, but his battle with Deputy President William Ruto will continue. KANU has already indicated that it will support Uhuru while contesting other seats in its Rift Valley stronghold, again fighting DP Ruto’s influence. The other counties are expected to vote as they did in 2013, including Mandera with its unique ‘negotiated’ democracy where clan elders select candidates for all seats from MCAs to Governor and the incumbents do not defend their seats. The so called ‘disgruntled’ voters in Meru and Tharaka Nithi will also fall into line and support Uhuru. Expect Uhuru’s votes in the Coast and Western to decrease slightly from 2013 as the Jubilee Party fails to make any impact in this two Regions.

‘TYRANNY OF NUMBERS’ IS NOW ‘TURN-OUT OF NUMBERS’

In my blog ‘Tyranny of Numbers was a political myth’ posted on the Kenya Election Database Facebook
page on 12th March, 2017, I concluded, after analysing registration data from the IEBC and data from the
Kenya Election Database software and using Excel spreadsheets:-
(1) Nasa strongholds have 2017 projected population of 21m (43.6%) against 17.7m (36.8%) for Jubilee strongholds. Battleground have 9.4m out of total population of 48.3 million.
(2) By 21/2/2017 NASA strongholds had registered 7.9m (40.6%) voters against Jubilee’s 7.6m (38.7%), a variance of 380,564. Battleground counties had registered 4 million (20.8m).
(3) Out of 2017 projected voter estimate of 19.3m, NASA strongholds were expected to register 8.4m but registered 7.9m hence missing its estimated voters by 446,269. Jubilee strongholds were expected to register 7.1m but registered 7.6m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 491,305. Battleground counties were expected to register 3.7m but registered 4m hence exceeding its estimated voters by 311,934.
(4) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to NASA strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 10,029,013 (50.9%) out of 19.6m.
(6) When 50% of Battleground counties (2,042,551) is added to Jubilee strongholds the overall voter total for 2017 is 9,648,449 (49.03%) out of 19.6m.
(7) NASA has registered 380,564 more voters as at 21-7-2017 than Jubilee (10,029,013 against 9,648,449).

From the above figures it is clear that both NASA and Jubilee have registered almost the same number of voters with NASA having 10.6m against 9.6m for Jubilee, a variance of only 380,564 in favour of NASA. Hence the Coalition that turns-out most of its registered voters to vote on 8th August, 2017 is sure to win the elections.

PREDICTING THE WINNER OF THE 2017 ELECTIONS

The prediction of a run-off after the August elections was reached by calculating each counties projected vote at eighty per cent of its registered voters. Eighty per cent is the average percentage of adults who actually vote in Kenya elections. For example Mombasa County has 596,485 registered voters in 2017, hence 80% of this is 477,188 will be its projected votes in 2017. But since Mombasa is a NASA county but has Jubilee voters, hence I used the 2013 Presidential election to determine the breakdown, which was 72% (NASA) and 24% (Jubilee). The Mombasa share of votes is then calculated at 72% of 477,188 to get NASA’s share (343,575) and 24% of 477,188 to get Jubilee’s share (114,525). Total projected votes for both coalitions will be 458,100 minus other parties. This formula is used for each county and is summarised below:-

1) IF VOTER TURN OUT IS 80 % THEN NASA’S TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 7.7 MILLION (48.93%) AND JUBILEE’S 7.6 MILLION (48.37%) (VARIANCE OF 87,000). TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 15.7 MILLION IF 80% TURN-OUT. A NARROW NASA WIN BUT BOTH FAIL TO GET 50% + 1 HENCE RUN-OFF IN SEPT, 2017. THIS IS BECAUSE THE 100% PROJECTED VOTE (ALL CANDIDATES) IS 15.7 MILLION HENCE 50% IS 7.8 MILLION.

2) IF VOTER TURN OUT IS 80 % IN BATTLEGROUND COUNTIES THEN NASA’S PROJECTED VOTES WILL BE 1.6 MILLION (50.51%) AND JUBILEE’S 1.5 MILLION (46.10%) (VARIANCE OF 143,000). TOTAL PROJ VOTES WILL BE 3.2 MILLION.

3) IF TURN-OUT IS 80% THEN NASA STRONGHOLDS ARE PROJECTED TO HAVE 6.3 MILLION VOTES, JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS 6 MILLION AND BATTLEGROUNDS 3.2 MILLION. WHEN HALF OF BATTLEGROUNDS ARE ADDED TO EACH COALITIONS’ VOTES THEN NASA IS PROJECTED TO HAVE 7.7 MILLION AND JUBILEE 7.6 MILLION.

4) IN CASE THE KAMBA LEAVE NASA AND GO IT ALONE IN 2017 ELECTIONS, THEN NASA VOTES WILL REDUCE TO 6.6 MILLION. IF KAMBAS VOTE WITH JUBILEE THEN JUBILEE’S PROJECTED VOTES WILL INCREASE TO 8.6 MILLION (VARIANCE OF 2 MILLION). JUBILEE WINS IN FIRST ROUND.

5) OUT OF THE 19.6 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS, 7.9 MILLION ARE FROM NASA STRONGHOLDS AND 7.6 MILLION FROM JUBILEE’S AND 4 MILLION FROM BATTLEGROUNDS.

6) AFTER CLOSURE OF VOTER REGISTRATION ON 27-2-2017, NASA STRONGHOLDS HAD REGISTERED ONLY 380,000 MORE VOTERS THAN JUBILEE AND IS PROJECTED TO HAVE ONLY 269,000 VOTES MORE THAN JUBILEE IF TURN-OUT IS 80% WHEN YOU EXCLUDE BATTLEGROUNDS. THIS MEANS NASA DID NOT IMPROVE ITS NUMBERS IN THE 2016/2017 VOTER REGISTRATION DESPITE HAVING 3 MILLION MORE PEOPLE IN ITS STRONGHOLDS THAN JUBILEE (21 MILLION VS 17.7 MILLION).

CONCLUSION

The above figures are a projection of the 8th August, 2017 election results based on voter registration and past voting patterns and trends if voter turn-out is 80% in all 47 counties.Of course not all counties will achieve a 80% turn-out due to voter apathy and other factors but both coalitions will have to undertake massive GOTV (Get out the vote) campaigns in order to achieve 80% or higher turn-out, failure to which the other side will carry the day, as Jubilee did in 2013 with only a mere 8,000 votes that saved them from a run-off. The 1.2 million ‘no show’ CORD voters in 2013 would have been enough to Raila give victory. NASA can only win if it remains united as loss of the 2 million Kamba ethnic block vote will prove to be fatal.

Jubilee knows that they can no longer rely on the ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ which has been proved to be an illusion and must now hope Kalonzo pulls out of NASA to ensure their victory in the first round. They should also avoid voter apathy when some supporters in their strongholds may not bother to vote. In the US elections Hillary Clinton missed making history as the first woman President by just 70,000 votes in the electoral colleges of 3 states despite winning the popular vote by 3 million. Even rigging is no longer an option with stringent controls and the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) expected to in place before June, 2017.

The higher the turn-out the less likely chances of rigging, since you can only rig to replace ‘no-show’ voters. A 99% voter turn-out will make rigging almost impossible.

The four Excel spread-sheets (Reports 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D) used to compile can be downloaded.

28th APRIL, 2017
© 2017 Hillary Ang’awa (Tel no 0722751753 Email: hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

The Kenya Election Database version 2.1 is a product of Systex Solutions P O Box 2523-00200 Nairobi
Tel 0722751753 Email: systexsolutions@yahoo.com

REPORT-2A-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-ALL-COUNTIES.xlsx (85 downloads)

 

REPORT-2B-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-NASA.xlsx (29 downloads)

 

REPORT-2C-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-JUBILEE.xlsx (30 downloads)

 

REPORT-2D-2017-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-BATTLEGROUNDS.xlsx (42 downloads)

 

ELECTION SOFTWARE ACCURATELY PREDICTED 2017 REGISTERED VOTERS IN NOVEMBER, 2015

By Hillary Ang’awa

The IEBC registered 19,677,463 voters as at 21-2-2017 (minus Diaspora, Prisoners and University students). The Kenya Election Database software, the only election data analysis and strategic election software for Kenya elections, predicted in November, 2015, that there will be 19,320,493 registered voters in 2017, which is only 356,970 less than the actual number attained by the IEBC after the end of the 2nd Mass Voter Registration on 21st February, 2017. It is expected that the IEBC figure will reduce by about 500,000 after auditing the voter register to remove duplicates and dead voters.
In some cases the prediction was almost spot on, e.g. the software predicted that Kericho County will have 379,473 voters in 2017 and the actual IEBC figure was 379,815, which is only more by 342. For Isiolo County, the software predicted that there will be 71,704 voters and the IEBC figure was 72,548, which was more by 844. For Nyanza Region the software predicted that there will be 2,723,533 voters in 2017 and the actual IEBC figure was 2,686,168, which was 37,365 less. For Coast Region the prediction for 2017 was 1,663,984, while the IEBC figure was 1,733,722, which was more by 69,738.
The predictions were contained in a blog entitled “Road to Kenya Elections 2017: Can this software predict the winner” by Stan Oyunga that was posted on the Kenya Election Database on 4th November, 2015. The prediction read as follows:-
“The first step in attempting to predict the results of the 2017 Presidential Elections is to project the number of eligible voters by county as shown in the tables above. To achieve this the software first projects each county’s population for 2017 (based on average annual growth rate of 2.4%) then calculates the number of voters at 40% of the projected population, since the average percentage of Kenyans who register to vote is 40% (equal to 80% of adult population). The software has calculated Kenya’s population in 2017 to be 48.3 million and estimated the eligible voters at 19.3 million if 80% of adult voter registration is achieved. Some counties may exceed 80% and some may be below, hence the 80% is considered average for all 47 counties”.

Please the original Excel report that predicted the 2017 registered voters and posted on the KED website in November, 2015 and the latest report after the end of Mass Voter Reg II on 21-2-2017 can be downloaded.

28th April, 2017

© 2017 Hillary Ang’awa (Tel no 0722751753 Email: hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

2017-COUNTIES-REGISTERED-VOTERS-AS-AT-21-2-2017-BY-REGION.xlsx (83 downloads)

 

COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-ALL-Nov-2015.xls (34 downloads)

CLINTON’S LOSS IS A WAKE UP CALL FOR JUBILEE

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@gmail.com)

INTRODUCTION

The loss of Democratic Party’s candidate Hillary Clinton to Republican Party’s Donald Trump in the 2016 US Presidential Elections sent shock waves in the United States and around the world. Most pre-election polls had Clinton leading hence Trump’s surprise win is considered the biggest upset in modern US election history. Although Clinton won the popular vote with 60.9 million (47.8 %) against Trump’s 60.3 million (60.3%), the latter won due to the US system of Electoral College votes, where Trump won 290 against Clinton’s 232 (minus Michigan’s 16 votes, which have yet to be decided but with Trump leading).
The pollsters got it wrong before, in “Brexit”, the referendum held in Britain in June, 2016, when a narrow majority voted to leave the European Union. Fear of immigrants (Britain no longer in control of its borders) played a large part in the decision. In the US, it was the poor rural whites having a “white-lash” against the establishment in Washington and also fear of immigrants (“white” America turning “brown” and need to build the wall along the Mexican border). Sky News had shown a documentary about the “rust-belt” states located in the north-eastern part of the US, which used to produce coal, steel, motor vehicles, etc. It was shocking to see the closed factories, run-down infrastructure and the people’s hopelessness. These “rural folks” voted for Trump and because most poll stars did not call them or they did not confirm that they were supporting Trump, the polls got it wrong. Loss of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin, which Obama had won in 2008 and 2012 was fatal to Hillary. In fact had only 100,000 voters from these four “flipped” states voted for Clinton instead of Trump, then she would have been the 45th President of the US. Poor turn-out of Democratic voters in states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 was also Clinton’s undoing as 6 million did not bother to turn-up. The overall turn-out for the US 2016 elections was only 50%.
The problem with the Clinton campaign is that they paid too much attention to opinion polls and grew complacent expecting a win on 8th November, 2016. In Kenya, the supporters of newly formed Jubilee Party, which consists of 11 parties that were previously part of the Jubilee Alliance Coalition and merged in September, 2016, are also confident of winning the 2017 Presidential elections and are buoyed by opinion polls that have consistently shown Uhuru Kenyatta, the incumbent President, leading his expected opponent, Raila Odinga.

OPINION POLLS VERSES DATA PREDICTION

In under nine months from now (August 2017), Kenyans would have re-elected Uhuru Kenyatta for a second term as President or would have shown him the door and made history as the first country in East Africa to have replaced an incumbent President; or the leading Presidential candidate would have failed to garner the 50% +1 figure required to be declared elected and Kenyans would be preparing for a run-off Presidential Election for the first time. Whether it will be Uhuru Kenyatta or Raila Odinga or another person altogether who will emerge the winner is hard to predict and opinion polls have proved inaccurate in both the 2007 and 2013 Presidential Elections.
For the first time in history of Presidential elections in Kenya, a software has been developed to do just that: predict the winner of the 2017 Presidential Elections. By using past voting patterns, voter turn-out, projected voter registration and ethnic block voting data, the software has attempted to predict the winner using a baseline data of 80% voter registration and 80% voter turn-out.
Since not all counties will achieve 80% or even 90% voter turn-out, the ultimate winner will depend which candidate can attain the highest voter turn-out in his stronghold. It will also depend if the two main party/coalitions can retain their core supporters and ethnic block voters.
The Kenya Election Database Version 2.1, is an Election Data Analysis and Strategic Election Planning software that holds full results of Kenya General Elections since 1969, population census for 1999 and 2009 and population projection for 2015 and 2017. It is still the only single source of Kenya General Election Results Data in the market.

COALITION POLITICS IN KENYA

The winner of any free and fair elections in most African countries depends on certain parameters such as Ethnic group block voting, political parties/coalitions and voter turn-out. The ruling party/coalition usually emerges the winner due to the influence of the incumbency but recent elections in Zambia, Malawi and Nigeria has shown that this is not always the case, when the election is deemed to be free and fair.
Since 2002, the two party/coalition system has been evident in Kenya and has worked well except for the disastrous 2007 Presidential Elections. There is a clear pattern in Ethnic block voting and coalition politics that has created coalition strongholds since no single ethnic group has the numbers to produce a winning Presidential candidate. Refer to my blog “Road to Kenya Election 2017: Who will have the numbers in 2017?” found at www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke .
The two main party/coalitions in Kenya, the Jubilee Party and the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), control 18 and 19 counties respectively which can be considered their strongholds. 10 other counties are considered “Fifty/Fifty” (or “battle grounds”) where both coalitions are more or else equal:-

[table id=69 /]
[table id=70 /]
[table id=71 /]

There is no guarantee that the CORD coalition will hold together or evolve into the National Super Alliance (NASA), a proposed amalgamation of CORD, Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress (ANC), Gideon Moi’s KANU and Isaac Rutto’s Chama Cha Mashinani (CCMN). CORD/NASA has yet to designate its Presidential candidate to face Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2017 General Elections but any break-up of CORD/NASA will guarantee Uhuru’s re-election and even avoid a run-off election.

2017 REGISTERED VOTER PROJECTION

The first step in attempting to predict the results of the 2017 Presidential Elections is to project the number of eligible voters by County as shown in the tables above. To achieve this the software first projects each County’s population for 2017 (based on average annual growth rate of 2.4%) then calculates the number of voters at 40% of the projected population, since the average percentage of Kenyans who register to vote is 40% (equal to 80% of adult population).
The software has calculated Kenya’s population in 2017 to be 48.3 million and estimated the eligible voters at 19.3 million if 80% of adult voter registration is achieved. Some counties may exceed 80% and some may be below, hence the 80% is considered average for all 47 counties.

2017 PROJECTED VOTES

The next step is to project the number of votes each coalition may receive in the 2017 Presidential Elections by County. To do this the data from the software was transferred to a spreadsheet and the projected votes was calculated as a percentage of what the coalition received in the 2013 Presidential Elections for each County. This assumes that the voting pattern in 2017 will follow that of 2013, unless there is a paradigm shift in coalition politics as explained above.
80% voter turn-out was taken as the baseline for each county considering the turn-out for the 2013 General Elections was 86%, the highest in Kenya’s history. The constituency turn-out for the 2013 Presidential Elections ranged from a high of 96% (Rangwe) to a low of 58% (Kilifi North).
For example Nairobi is expected to have a projected population of 3.9 million in 2017 and estimated voter registration of 1.5 million (40%) and voter turn-out of 1.2 million (80%). CORD’s valid vote share in 2013 was 51% while Jubilee’s was 47%, hence CORD’s projected vote in Nairobi will be 640,739 and Jubilee’s will be 590,485. This figure is on the lower side since some constituencies in Nairobi record voter registration of above 100% of adult population due to non-residence of these constituencies coming to register there (voter importation). They include Starehe, Makadara, Embakasi East and Roysambu.
The spreadsheet cell entries are as follows:-

COL H: 2017 Population Projection
COL I: 2017 Registered Voter Estimate (40% of H)
COL J: 2017 Projected Votes (80% of I)
COL K: CORD Valid Vote % in 2013
COL L: Jubilee Valid Vote % in 2013
COL M: Total Valid Vote % in 2013 (K + L)
COL N: CORD Projected Votes (K% of J)
COL O: Jubilee Projected Votes (L% of J)
COL P: Total Votes (N + O)
To obtain the projected votes for the 2017 Presidential Elections I have prepared 4 spreadsheets using the above formulae:-

REPORT-3A-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-ALL.xls (68 downloads)
REPORT-3B-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-CORD.xls (48 downloads)
REPORT-3C-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-JUBILEE.xls (47 downloads)
REPORT-3D-COUNTIES-ELECTION-PROJECTED-VOTES-IF-TURN-OUT-80-FIFTY-FIFTY.xls (41 downloads)

2017 PROJECTED RESULTS

According to the spreadsheets which are attached to this blog, if the 2017 Presidential Elections has a 80% turn-out, then the CORD/NASA candidate is projected to receive 8.7 (54.3%) million against 7.1 (44.3%) million for the Jubilee candidate, if all 47 counties record a 80% voter registration. If any coalition fails to achieve 80% voter registration and/or 80% turn-out then the projected votes will reduce accordingly or even increase if 90% or higher is achieved for both parameters.
Total projected votes for 2017 is 16 million compared to 12.3 million in 2013. Total projected registered voters will be 19.3 million compared to 14.3 million in 2013 against IEBC voter registration target of 18 million. The IEBC wants to register 8 million new voters by 2017 in order to reach its target of 23 million voters. But the software has projected that IEBC will register only 6 million new voters by the 2017 General Elections, but even this figure may be on the higher side due to voter apathy or delay in acquiring ID cards. It is estimated that 4.6 million Kenyans who will be aged 18 to 23 in 2017, will qualify to register as first time voters, out of which 2.1 million are from Jubilee strongholds and 2.5 from CORD’s (read blog “Where are Kenya’s potential youth voters found?” at www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke ).

CONCLUSION

The purpose of this software and the spreadsheets is to assist Election Managers in planning the 2017 Presidential campaigns and setting targets that can assure their respective candidates’ victory. Cutting deals to lure ethnic block votes to their coalitions will be the norm.
It is also to assist Kenyans to see the importance of registering as voters and turning out to vote. CORD strongholds had more potential eligible voters then Jubilee’s but due to failure to register as voters and turn-out in large number to vote in the 2013 General Elections, CORD lost, leading to the infamous “Tyranny of Numbers”.
Overall a total of 5.6 million Kenyans in the strongholds of the 2 top candidates, did not take part in the 2013 Elections, out of which 2 million were registered to vote but did not for various reasons (no one has done any research as to why registered voters do not vote on the actual voting day), 3.6 million did not register at all for various reasons including lack of identity cards but some choose not to do so (boycott?) or lack of interest (millennials or generation y?).
Out of the 2 million registered voters who did not vote in the 2013 General Elections, 1.2 million were from CORD strongholds and over 700,000 were from Jubilee strongholds. Out of the 3.6 million eligible voters who did not register, 2.4 million were from CORD strongholds and 1.2 million were from Jubilee strongholds.
From the above analysis and data from the Kenya Election Database, Uhuru Kenyatta cannot win re-election if the CORD/NASA achieves 80% voter registration and 80% voter turn-out in its strongholds (“Double 80”).
Jubilee has no choice but to try and “flip” some CORD/NASA counties and fifty/fifty counties to Jubilee counties just as the Republicans did to Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin and made Trump the surprise winner of the 2016 US elections.

13-NOV-2016
© 2016 STAN OYUNGA

DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE PURELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR OF THIS BLOG. THE KENYA ELECTION DATABASE IS A NON-PARTISAN WEBSITE AND IS NOT AFFILIATED TO ANY COALITION, POLITICAL PARTY OR ORGANIZATION.

RETURN OF THE PRODIGAL SON: JUBILEE’S WORST NIGHTMARE

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@gmail.com)
INTRODUCTION

The winner of any free and fair elections in most African countries depends on certain parameters such as Ethnic group block voting, political parties/coalitions and voter turn-out. The ruling party/coalition usually emerges the winner due to the influence of the incumbency but recent elections in Zambia, Malawi and Nigeria has shown that this is not always the case, when the election is deemed to be free and fair.
Since 2002, the two party/coalition system (two horse race) has been evident in Kenya and has worked well except for the disastrous 2007 Presidential elections. There is a clear pattern in Ethnic block voting and coalition politics that has created coalition strongholds since no single ethnic group has the numbers to produce a winning Presidential candidate.
Orange Democratic Party (ODM) leader and co-Principal in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), Raila Amolo Odinga is believed to be holding talks with Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader, Musalia Mudavadi in order to lure him to join CORD and even let him became the coalition’s Presidential candidate in 2017. But why Mudavadi, who finished a poor third in the 2013 elections with only 3.93% of the national vote?

TIME TO CHANGE TACTICS

Raila is slowly realising that in order to dislodge the Jubilee Coalition from power, he needs to change his game plan even if it means stepping down for another candidate. After three presidential election attempts in 1997, 2007 (which he probably won) and 2013, and age catching up with him, Raila has decided that to catch Jubilee off-guard and present another flag-bearer, especially after ODM’s Western region stronghold was coming under threat, especially with the recent resignation of ODM Secretary-General Ababu Namwamba. If his choice is Mudavadi then it would not be a surprise since he was Raila’s deputy in ODM until 2012 when they had a falling out and Mudavadi joined the United Democratic Front Party (UDF) in order to contest the 2013 elections. Some State House operatives who feared a Raila presidency in 2013 to replace incumbent Mwai Kibaki, were leaning towards Mudavadi as a successor to Kibaki. Even Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, who had both been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague and had joined forces to form the Jubilee Coalition in 2012 were briefly convinced to let Mudavadi to be their Presidential candidate. They even signed an agreement to this effect until Uhuru came under pressure to back-out in the infamous “the devil made me do it” incident that left Mudavadi high and dry.
Hence Mudavadi has always been viewed a compromise candidate due to his non-confrontational politics. His Quaker up bringing may be responsible since Quakers are known for their honesty and respected worldwide for their pacifisms, strict adherence to speaking the truth at all times and do not swear oaths, have aversion to war and violence, plain dressing and plain speaking. Due to poor decision making, Mudavadi has been viewed as a loser in the past. In 2002, he decided to back former President Daniel arap Moi’s choice of Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor and was appointed Vice-President to replace Prof George Saitoti. Uhuru was defeated by Mwai Kibaki of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in the 2002 Presidential elections, hence ending KANU’s 40 years as Kenya’s ruling party. Mudavadi lost his Sabatia parliamentary seat and made history as the shortest serving Vice-President in Kenya’s history (2 months). His decision to leave ODM in 2012, where he was Deputy Party Leader, and standing as a Presidential candidate in the 2013 elections, even when it was clear he had no chance of winning is another case of his poor decision making. He even briefly became the Presidential candidate for the Jubilee Coalition.
Once again, Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi is being considered as a compromise candidate to face Uhuru Kenyatta in the August 8th Presidential Elections hoping to become the 5th President of Kenya. Is Raila Odinga, always the king maker and may be destined to become like Moses, who never entered the Promised Land, about to say “Mudavadi tosha”?

THE LUHYA FACTOR

The Luhya ethnic group is the second largest in Kenya with a population of 5.3 million (13.8%) according to the 2009 census, only the Kikuyu is larger with 6.6 million (17.15%). It is projected to have a population of 6.6 million in 2017 and voter potential of 2.6 million. The Luhya has often voted for different Presidential candidates in past Presidential elections, even when the candidate is a Luhya, e.g. Michael Kijana Wamalwa in 1997. The only time they have voted as a block is in the 2002 Presidential elections for NARC when Mwai Kibaki stood against KANU’s Uhuru Kenyatta. Wamalwa was designated to be Kibaki’s Vice-President hence most of the Luhya votes went to Narc despite KANU having a Luhya as a sitting Vice-President at that time (Mudavadi).
Raila’s possible choice of Mudavadi is designed to lock the huge Luhya voting block (estimated at 2.6 million) in CORD and prevent any further in-roads by Jubilee into Western Region. It is a risky strategy since it will make Mudavadi like the “Prodigal Son” in the Bible (Luke 15:11-32), who was welcomed by his father back home with lavish celebration, despite protestation by the older son.
The other CORD co-principals, Moses Wetengula of the FORD-Kenya and Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya who both plan to vie with Raila to be the CORD presidential flag-bearer may not be happy unless Raila can convince them to accept Mudavadi, just as he has sacrificed his last chance to be President of Kenya. If they accept then Kalonzo will have to be Mudavadi’s running mate, while Wetangula may be given a powerful post such as Leader of Majority or Speaker of the National Assembly (3rd in line in succession for President).
Wetangula may have no choice since a Luhya presidential candidate will lock up almost the entire Luhya voting block and even defecting to the new Jubilee Party will not be possible as would mean having to dissolve his FORD-Kenya party just as New Ford Kenya did in June, 2016, unless Jubilee Party signs a pre-election Coalition agreement with FORD-Kenya. Kalonzo can make a decision to defect to Jubilee, but again it would mean dissolving his Wiper party, which is very unlikely as Kenyans still blame him for the 2007 fall-out with Raila when a united ODM had enough votes to assure Raila an outright win against Mwai Kibaki. There is no guarantee of Kalonzo ever being running mate to Ruto in 2022, hence being running mate in 2017 to Mudavadi is the better option. He may just have to forgo any MOU he signed with Raila in 2013 as his Kamba ethnic group will have 1.9 million potential voters in 2017, which is the 5th largest in Kenya but smaller than the Luhya’s 2.6 million.
Despite the defunct New Ford Kenya party merging with Jubilee and its leaders getting parastatal and diplomatic jobs, it only has part of the support of the Bukusu sub-ethnic group found in Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia Counties. Most of the Bukusu still support FORD-Kenya which is part of the CORD coalition, and more so if the Presidential candidate is a Luhya. Jubilee Party candidates in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia will stand little chance of being elected as long as there is a Luhya presidential candidate.
While the Bukusu remain the most populous of the 17 sub-ethnic groups of the Luhya, with a projected population of 1.8 million out of the Luhya’s 6.6 million (27.2 %), they are in the minority when the other 16 sub-ethnic group are considered. The Maragoli is the 2nd largest sub-ethnic group with a projected population of 773,543 (11.2 %). Thus the Bukusu vote will not add much to Jubilee Party’s overall vote in 2017.
Even a FORD-Kenya/Wiper Coalition with Wetangula as presidential candidate and Kalonzo as running mate or verse-versa will not work as they will miss most of the Luhya, all of the Luo, some of the Kisii and Coast votes and will end up a distant third in a three-way race.

2017 ETHNIC GROUP VOTER POTENTIAL

By using the 2009 census results for Kenya’s 43 ethnic groups, and then projecting their population in 2017 (based on average annual growth of 2.4 %), the Kenya Election Database software can display the estimated voter potential (based on 40 % of 2017 projected population) for each ethnic group.
Kenya’s projected ethnic group (excluding non-citizens) population in 2017 will be 47 million. If there is an 80 % voter registration, then the potential voters will be 18.8 million. Since adults (18 years or over) make 50 % of Kenya’s population, and not all of them register as voters for various reasons, 40 % is taken as the average of Kenya’s population that registers as voters (80 % of projected adult population in 2017).
The ethnic groups are ranked by 2009 population with Kikuyu ranked 1st (6.6 million) and the Konso ranked 43rd (1,758). Note that sub-ethnic group are included in the main ethnic groups, e.g. Kipsigis and Pokot are included under Kalenjin; and Giriama and Digo under Mijikenda. The Kenya Election Database also gives the 2009 census and 2017 population projection for each of Kenya’s 79 sub-ethnic groups.
The “Big Five” main ethnic groups comprising the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba make up 64 % of Kenya’s citizen population hence can influence the results of any Presidential elections. Out of these “Big Five”, the Kikuyu (8.2 million population projection in 2017) and Kalenjin (6.2 million) support the Jubilee coalition while the Luhya (6.6 million), Luo (5 million) and Kamba (4.8 million) support the CORD coalition. The next 6 ethnic groups in ranking account for 26 % of the Kenya citizen population: Kenya Somali (2.9 million), Kisii (2.7 million), Mijikenda (2.4 million), Meru (2 million), Turkana (1.2 million) and Maasai (1 million). Note that the Kenya Somalia and Turkana population may have been overstated in the 2009 census.
Hence the top 11 ranked ethnic groups listed below will have a projected population of more than 43 million in 2017, accounting for more than 90 % of Kenya’s citizen population. Their estimated voter potential will be 17.4 million if 80 % voter registration is achieved. Whichever coalition controls the majority of the top 11 ethnic group will have a good chance to win the 2017 Presidential elections as long they achieve a high voter registration and turn-out.
The table below shows that out of the top 11 ethnic groups, Jubilee controls only 3 ethnic groups with total estimated voter of 6.6 million if 80 % registration is achieved while CORD controls 5 ethnic groups with total estimated voter of 9.2 million. The Kenyan Somali and Masaai are considered “Fifty/Fifty” as they usually vote for both coalitions. They have a total estimated voter of 1.1 million and 421,148 respectively if 80 % registration is achieved. Refer to my blog “Road to Elections 2017: The Reality of Ethnic Block Votes” found at www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke .

[table id=65 /]

Note: The Somali and Turkana population census figures may need verification after the 2009 census as the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) raised a red flag on figures from 8 Districts in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Turkana.

COALITION COUNTY STRONG HOLDS

The two main coalitions in Kenya, Jubilee and CORD, control 18 and 19 counties respectively which can be considered their strongholds. 10 other counties are considered “Fifty/Fifty” or battle grounds, where both coalitions are more or else equal.
County strongholds were determined by which coalition garnered the majority votes (above 66.6 %) in that county in the 2013 Presidential Elections. Where both coalitions failed to get a majority, then that county was designated “Fifty/Fifty” or battle ground. For example in Narok County, the 5 out of the 6 constituencies elected an M.P. affiliated to the Jubilee coalition, but Raila Odinga of CORD had more votes than Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee (50 % against 46 %), hence making Narok a “Fifty/Fifty” county. Although Vihiga County was won by Musalia Mudavadi of Amani coalition, it is unlikely that he will stand alone again in 2017; hence Vihiga has been placed under CORD.

[table id=66 /]

[table id=67 /]

[table id=68 /]

While CORD intends to remain a pre-election coalition, the Jubilee Coalition is set to launch the Jubilee Party (JP) on 10th September, 2016 where all parties under the coalition are expected to dissolve and all candidates contest under JP in 2017. This merger has no numerical advantage for Uhuru as he prepares to defend his seat in 2017 and will make it harder to form pre-election coalitions with other political parties outside his Kikuyu and Ruto’s Kalenjin ethnic group.
There are TWO possible scenarios for the 2017 elections if a Luhya candidate is chosen as a flag bearer for CORD. In Scenario 1, the Amani National Coalition joins CORD and Mudavadi becomes the Presidential candidate with Kalonzo as his running mate. In Scenario 2, Kalonzo pulls Wiper out of CORD and makes a pre-election coalition with the Jubilee Party, hence CORD will have to get a running mate from the Coast with Mudavadi as the flag bearer:-

SCENARIO 1: JUBILEE PARTY (UHURU/RUTO) VS CORD (MUDAVADI/KALONZO)

This is the most likely scenario in 2017 and assumes that there is no major re-alignments in both coalitions. Out of the top 11 ethnic groups, Jubilee fully controls only 3 ethnic groups with 6.6 million estimated voters if 80 % registration is achieved while CORD mostly controls 6 ethnic groups with 9.2 million estimated voters. The Kenyan Somali and the Maasai are considered “Fifty/Fifty” as they usually vote for both coalitions. CORD’s voters are projected to be 10.3 million, exceeding Jubilee’s 9 million by 1.3 million if 80% voter registration is achieved.
Jubilee cannot afford to sit back and hope not enough CORD supporters will turn up to register and vote in order to re-gain their “Tyranny of Numbers” in 2017. CORD has already embarked on ensuring that youths in their strongholds obtain ID cards and register as voters in time for the 2017 elections. The South Rift “rebellion” led by Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto is expected to fizzle out by the 2017 elections and KANU may not present any threat to the Jubilee Party even if it sponsors its own candidates.


SCENARIO 2: CORD VS JUBILEE + WIPER

If Jubilee’s attempt to lure the Western Region’s voters to its side fails then its only option is to turn east to the Kamba ethnic group that occupies lower Eastern Region but has as a sizable population in Nairobi and the Coast. This ethnic group is expected to have 1.9 million voters in 2017 and is a principal partner in CORD with Kalonzo Musyoka, the Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya party leader, the running mate of Raila Odinga in the 2013 elections.
Wiper has had a frosty relationship with Jubilee ever since attempts by Kalonzo to endear himself to Uhuru and Ruto just after they were indicted by the ICC in The Hague in 2011, failed. This re-buff drove Kalonzo into the hands of Raila leading to the formation of CORD in 2012. The Kambas have never forgiven Uhuru and Ruto for the mistreatment of Kalonzo and Uhuru received only 89,064 in Kitui, Machakos and Makueni compared to Raila’s 768,025. There appears to be strategy by Jubilee to win Kamba voters by using Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua, as an alternative to Kalonzo but this strategy may backfire as Kambas are unlikely to abandon Kalonzo.
Hence in this scenario, Uhuru and Ruto will have to make peace and make a deal with Kalonzo, who will not agree to dissolve his Wiper Party but may sign a pre-coalition agreement that will guarantee him a significant post in a Jubilee/Wiper Coalition in 2017. One possible guarantee is that Kalonzo becomes Ruto’s running mate in the 2022 Elections, meanwhile he or one of his party members can become Majority Leader (formerly Leader of Government Business) in the 12th Parliament in 2017. Kalonzo will be taking a huge risk since others want to land the 2022 running mate slot in Jubilee Party. If Wiper pulls out of CORD and joins Jubilee, then CORD will have little chance of winning the 2017 elections as the loss of Wiper will reduce CORD’s projected voters in 2017 to 8.8 million compared to Jubilee plus Wiper’s 10.5 million, a variance of 2.7 million. Hence Jubilee can afford to lose the entire Luhya block votes in 2017 as long as they have the Kamba votes. Number of CORD counties will reduce to 16 while Jubilee’s will increase to 21 with Kitui, Machakos and Makueni becoming Jubilee counties. 50/50 counties will be 10. The significant Kamba votes in Nairobi and the Coast will increase the Jubilee vote tally in both Regions.


WHO REALLY HAS THE NUMBERS?

Elections are about numbers, and the party/coalition that can ensure that most of its supporters register and majority of them turn-up to vote on Tuesday, 8th August, 2017, will win the elections. It is after all, a game of numbers. In fact “the tyranny of numbers” only exists in Parliament due to the many newly created constituencies in the Rift Valley, but does not translate to a huge voter base. Raila Odinga seems to realise that in 2013 he had the numbers to defeat Uhuru without even a run-off but the low voter registration and voter turn-out caused his loss and he does not want to repeat this mistake again.
By using the Kenya Election Database software, it is possible to find out how many registered voters did not vote in 2013 and also the number of adults who did not register (potential voters). In the 2013 Presidential Elections, Uhuru Kenyatta of TNA won in 135 out of 291 constituencies while Raila Odinga of ODM won 153. Musalia Mudavadi of United Democratic Forum Party (UDF) won only in 3 constituencies. Kenyatta obtained 5.2 million votes from constituencies where he was winner out of the total of 6.1 million votes he got in the 2013 Elections. Out of 135 constituencies where Kenyatta won, 790,519 registered voters did not vote and an estimated 1.4 million did not register (based on IEBC targets).
Raila Odinga obtained 4.4 million votes from the 153 constituencies where he was winner, out of total of 5.3 million votes he got in 2013 Elections. Out of the 153 constituencies where he was winner, 1.2 million registered voters did not vote and an estimated 2.3 million did not register (based on IEBC targets). Hence while Kenyatta had a voter deficit of 2 .2 million from his strongholds, Odinga had a voter deficit of 3.5 million clearly showing he had the numbers.
By fore-going the Presidency in 2017, Raila will put to an end the Kikuyu/Luo political rivalry that has been a feature of Kenya politics since Uhuru’s father and Raila’s father had a fall out in 1966 and led to the 2007/2008 post-election violence, Kenya’s worst conflict since independence in 1963.
A Luhya Presidential candidate in 2017 is a nightmare for Jubilee who are expecting to face Raila in a repeat of the 2013 elections and they will need to go back to the drawing board to counter CORD if they indeed were to select Musalia Mudavadi as their flag-bearer.

RAILA’S LEGACY

Raila may remain as the de-facto leader of CORD while holding no state office and join the few World leaders who have held power without being President/Prime Minister of their respective countries, such as Indian National Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi, widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, whose party won the 2004 Indian elections. Mrs Gandhi decided not to become Prime Minister as she was born in Italy and some Hindus were opposed to a white woman leading India, despite the fact that she was a Hindu. She appointed someone else as Prime Minister but remained the de facto leader of India until 2014 when her party lost power.
Another is Myanmar (formerly Burma) leader and Noble Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party won the 2015 elections that ended years of military rule, but was prevented from becoming President as she was the widow of a foreigner and mother to two non-citizen children, a provision specifically written in the country’s constitution to prevent her from becoming President. She appointed someone else to be president but became Foreign Minister and in 2016 assumed a new position of State Counsellor, thus remaining the de facto leader of Myanmar.
Raila can also take the role of an elder statesman like former President Nelson Mandela and Julius Nyerere who were still revered long after leaving the political stage.

Source: The Kenya Election Database version 2.1
21ST August, 2016
© 2016 STAN OYUNGA
DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE PURELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR OF THIS BLOG. THE KENYA ELECTION DATABASE IS A NON-PARTISAN WEBSITE AND IS NOT AFFILIATED TO ANY COALITION, POLITICAL PARTY OR ORGANIZATION.

NAIROBI COUNTY: THE JEWEL IN THE CROWN

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@gmail.com)
Nairobi County is not only the seat of Government, it is also the richest county of Kenya’s 47 counties, holding 60% of Kenya’s GDP of 64 billion dollars (6.4 trillion shillings), with the highest revenue base and the economic capital of East and Central Africa. It is not surprising that it a prime target for both the ruling Jubilee coalition and the opposition Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD), whose candidate, Evans Kidero of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) won in Kenya’s first ever gubernatorial elections in March, 2013. Nairobi City County was allocated Kshs 14 billion out of the Kshs 302 billion allocated by the National Treasury to County Governments for 2016/2017 Financial Year. Hence Nairobi is considered the jewel on the Kenyan crown.
Due to its cosmopolitan nature, Nairobi is now the hottest battle ground state with the 2017 General Elections only one year away. While Governor Kidero is expected to defend his seat on an ODM ticket, there is a scramble for the new Jubilee Party ticket. The Jubilee Party which is due to be launched in September, 2016 after 12 parties of the Jubilee Coalition merge.
Nairobi is the most balanced County (fifty/fifty) where both Jubilee and CORD have an almost equal share of voters. According to the 2009 population census, Nairobi County has 3,138,369 people and is projected to have 4 million people by 2017. It had 1,728,801 registered voters in 2013 and is projected to have 2 million voters by the 2017 General Elections, the highest in the country. Nairobi is the most populous county in Kenya and as well as the most densely populated and the third smallest in land area. Only Vihiga and Mombasa are smaller than Nairobi in land area.
During the 2013 Presidential Elections in Nairobi, Raila Odinga of ODM received 691,156 valid votes out of the 1,398,476 (49.42 %) while Uhuru Kenyatta of The National Alliance (TNA) received 659,490 (47.16 %). Although Raila had more votes than Uhuru, this is a variance of only 31,666 hence can be considered a very close race. The other 6 candidates received only 47,830 votes.
In the Gubernatorial Elections, Evans Kidero of ODM received 692,490 valid votes (49.73 %) while the runner-up, Ferdinand Waititu of TNA received 618,047 (44.38 %), which means that not all of Uhuru’s voters voted for the TNA candidate while Kidero received 1,334 more votes than Raila. The difference between the TNA Presidential candidate and gubernatorial candidate was 41,443, which means some of Uhuru’s voters did not vote for Waititu. The 3rd placed candidate, Jimnah Mbaru of Alliance Party of Kenya (APK) received only 52,510 votes (3.77 %) but some of those who voted for Uhuru could have voted for Mbaru for Governor instead of Waititu.
The almost equal support for CORD and Jubilee candidates proves that cosmopolitan nature of Nairobi’s population. No ethnic group can claim to be the majority in Nairobi although the Kikuyu remain the single largest ethnic group in Nairobi County. The Kikuyu have dominated Nairobi Parliamentary elections since independence with most past Members of Parliament coming from this ethnic group except for Westlands, Langata, Makadara and Kasarani constituencies which have had either Luhya or Luo as MPs. The ethnic demographics of Nairobi has changed with the introduction of the 17 new constituencies in 2013 to replace the old 8 (Makadara, Kamukunji, Starehe, Langata, Dagoretti, Westlands, Kasarani and Embakasi).
The 17 new constituencies in Nairobi County are:

[table id=62 /]

Embakasi, which was formerly Kenya’s largest constituency was divided into 5 (South, North, Central, East and West); Langata into 2 (Langata and Kibra); Dagoretti into 2 (Dagoretti North and South); Kasarani into 3 (Kasarani, Roysambu and Ruaraka); Starehe into 2 (Starehe and Mathare).
While both CORD and Jubilee have almost equal support in Nairobi County, they have clear majority in some of the new 17 constituencies. Dagoretti South (c/no 276), Roysambu (c/no 279) and Kasarani (c/no 280) are the only constituencies in Nairobi County with majority Kikuyu population, hence can be considered Jubilee strongholds. Westlands (c/no 274), Dagoretti North (c/no 275), Langata (c/no 277), Kibra (c/no 278), Ruaraka (c/no 281) and Embakasi South (c/no 282) are clearly CORD strongholds. It is not a coincidence that the Luo, Luhya aand Kambas make the majority ethnic groups in these constituencies.
The remaining 8 constituencies can be considered fifty/fifty or battle ground constituencies due to the almost equal votes each coalition received in 2013 as shown in the tables below:-

[table id=63 /]

The perception that parties in the CORD coalition split their votes in the 2013 Parliamentary elections appears to be only true in Makadara (c/no 287) and Embakasi West (c/no 286). In Makadara, both ODM and Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya split votes thus allowing TNA to win the seat. The ODM candidate had 36,183 and the Wiper candidate had 7,505, totaling 43,688 which was enough to beat the TNA’s candidate’s 40,606. In Embakasi West, ODM, Wiper and Ford-Kenya combined vote was 41,630, which again was enough to beat the TNA candidate’s 40,606.
The key in winning Nairobi County is to target just the 7 constituencies that are east of Outer Ring Road, the only area of Nairobi whose demographics is growing. As more and more people move to this area, new buildings are being put up at a very fast rate to support this growing population. The 7 constituencies now account for 42 % of Nairobi’s estimated population of 4 million (1.7 million), and 40% of its voters, hence a potential voter base of 900,000 by 2017, as shown in the table below:-

[table id=64 /]

There are cases of voter importation mainly from Kiambu into Nairobi in order to boost’s Jubilee’s supporters in ready for the 2017 election as they aim to win the gubernatorial election, but this practice is no longer illegal. As the IEBC has yet to officially release the latest voter registration figures, the impact of voter transfer on Nairobi County voting trends is still not clear.
Source: The Kenya Election Database version 2.1
17th August, 2016

© 2016 STAN OYUNGA
DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE PURELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR OF THIS BLOG. THE KENYA ELECTION DATABASE IS A NON-PARTISAN WEBSITE AND IS NOT AFFILIATED TO ANY COALITION, POLITICAL PARTY OR ORGANIZATION.

NAIROBI-COUNTY-VOTING-TRENDS-REPORT.xlsx (33 downloads)
NAIROBI-COUNTY-VOTER-STRONGHOLDS-REPORT.xlsx (25 downloads)

IS UHURU RISKING DEFEAT IN 2017?

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@gmail.com)

INTRODUCTION

In exactly one year from now (8th August 2017), Kenyans would have re-elected Uhuru Kenyatta for a second term as President or would have shown him the door and made history as the first country in East Africa to have replaced an incumbent President; or the leading Presidential candidate would have failed to garner the 50% +1 figure required to be declared elected and Kenyans would be preparing for a run-off Presidential election for the first time. 

IS FORMATION OF JUBILEE PARTY EVEN NECESSARY?

The idea of having all parties in the Jubilee coalition merge into a single party was mooted early last year but is just about to be become a reality after President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto were presented with instruments of the new Jubilee Party on 25th July, 2016 from the co-chairmen of the Jubilee Party National Steering Committee, Dr Noah Wakesa and Mr Kiraitu Murungi. 

Among the 14 parties to be dissolved before the formation of the Jubilee Party are The National Party (TNA), which sponsored President Uhuru Kenyatta and the United Republican Party (URP) which sponsored Deputy President Ruto in the 2013 elections. Others include the New Ford Kenya (NFK), (which decided to dissolve itself on 11th June, 2016), Alliance Party of Kenya (APK), United Democratic Forum (UDF), Ford-People (FORD-P), Grand National Union (GNU) and Republican Congress (RC). 

The parties have been given one month to dissolve at the joint National Delegates Conference to be held before end of August, 2016. The Jubilee Party’s top organ is expected to be the National Executive Committee (NEC) with Uhuru and Ruto expected to appoint the 77 members on an interim basis. As a pointer to jostling of positions on the NEC, New Ford Kenya is already claiming the Secretary-General’s seat, stating they deserve it by virtue of being the first to dissolve.

In order to insulate the President, his deputy and the Governors and their deputies from losing their seats whenever their sponsoring party dissolves, the Political Parties Act, 2011 was amended recently. It previously only protected sitting Members of the National Assembly, the Senate and Members of County Assembly (MCA) as they were given option of moving to a new party or becoming independent members.

The section 10 of the Political Parties Act requires Coalitions to deposit their Coalition agreements 3 months prior to a General Election or 21 days after signing such an agreement after a General Election. Dissolving Political Parties in the Jubilee Coalition and merging them with the Jubilee Party before April, 2017 may render the pre-election coalition agreement dull and void and Jubilee may lose its status of the majority coalition under section 108 of the Constitution. Since the new Jubilee Party will not be part of any coalition, it is not clear if it can still claim the position of Leader of the Majority party under section 108 (2) of the constitution, especially if some elected members of the former Jubilee coalition decide not to join the Jubilee Party and become independent members, thus denying JP the numbers to be the largest party in Parliament. 

Currently the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is the largest single party in Parliament with 93 elected members (78 MPs and 15 Women Reps) followed by TNA with 83 (70 MPs and 13 Women Reps) and URP with 73 (62 MPs and 11 Women Rep). The law is silent if a ruling coalition ceases to exist by virtue of dissolution of its constituent parties, which is set to happen in September, 2016.
The Jubilee coalition has a total of 176 elected members (150 MPs and 26 Women Reps) while Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) has 136 elected members (115 MPs and 21 Women Reps).

PARTY NOMINATIONS

The new Jubilee Party’s biggest challenge will be how to handle party nominations for the 2017 General Elections. The losers may decide to look for other parties to nominate them to enable them to take part in the General Elections or stand as independent candidates. Currently losers in nominations are not prevented from defecting to other parties or becoming independent candidates. In some cases this will lead to the strange situation of a party under CORD or another coalition having a seat in a Jubilee Party stronghold. This actually happened in the 2013 General Elections when the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) won in Igembe Central and Tigania East, hence were counted as being under CORD despite being in a Jubilee Coalition stronghold. Areas such as Nairobi, Nakuru and Eldoret will see former TNA and URP aspirants in direct competition for interim party seats in the new Jubilee Party and also for nominations in the primary elections. 

By forming the Jubilee Party, it will make it difficult to have other major parties outside the Kikuyu and Kalenjin ethnic groups join the Jubilee Party as they will first have to dissolve their parties (e.g. Luhya, Kisii, Kamba and Coastal), a move that will make them lose their identity. Moving from a pre-election Coalition to a single political party has no advantage for Uhuru Kenyatta as he seeks to be re-elected. In fact it may be very risky due to the nature of coalition politics in Kenya. He needs to attract other parties (ethnic groups) to his coalition as he depends mainly on his Kikuyu ethnic group, Meru and Ruto’s Kalenjin ethnic group. Uhuru should retain Jubilee as a pre-election coalition in order to attract other parties as Kenyans tend to identify with their ethnic groups especially in voting patterns. This the reality of Kenya Politics which cannot be wished away.

THE NARC DREAM

The reason for a party to “unite Kenyans” does not hold water and the nearest that Kenya came to having such a party in the multi-party era was The National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), in 2002 which was formed to end KANU’s 40 year reign as Kenya’s ruling party. The party originated from Charity Ngilu’s National Party of Kenya (NPK) in 1997 but did not sponsor any candidates in the 1997 General Elections. It transformed itself into the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK), a coalition of 13 political parties formed in September, 2002 in order to contest the General Election as one party. On 22/10/2002 it joined forces with the Liberal Democratic Party (Rainbow), which comprised of former KANU politicians, to form the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) with Mwai Kibaki as its presidential candidate. Political parties that joined forces to form NAK were the Democratic Party, Ford-Kenya, Social Democratic Party, National Party of Kenya, SPARK, United Democratic Movement, Ford-Asili, Conservative Party of Kenya, Shirikisho, Federal Party of Kenya, Kenda, Liberal Green Party and the Progressive People’s Forum. 

NAK transformed itself into the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) to enable the latter to sponsor candidates for the 2002 General Elections held on 27th December, 2002 which was won by NARC. This tactic was to prevent the KANU government from refusing to register NARC as a political party. By the 2007 Elections the NARC dream of a united Kenya party was history. Will the same thing happen to the Jubilee Party in 2022?

CONCLUSION

Jubilee’s “Tyranny of Numbers” only exists in the National Assembly due to the large number of new constituencies created in the Rift Valley and North-Eastern Regions, but whose population is low. It does not translate to a huge voter base. Jubilee has no choice but to remain a coalition and embark on luring part of Western Region, Coast and the lower Eastern Region into its fold if it wants to win re-election in 2017.

Uhuru should spend the last full year of his term building his legacy like the completion of the Standard Gauge Railway, the Lamu Seaport and transport corridor, the School Laptop and electrification; and reducing the terrorist threat to Kenya. But he is about to enter a political minefield due to poor advice and will turn out to be a distraction. 

The biggest threat to Uhuru’s re-election bid is if ODM party leader, Raila Odinga decides not to stand in the 2017 elections and instead nominates another person to stand as the CORD flag bearer (“Wata or Wiper tosha”). Uhuru cannot afford to wait for a miracle to make CORD break-up in order to win re-election. Even taking “goodies” to CORD strong-holds will never work as long as the candidates are standing on Jubilee Party tickets. 

President Mwai Kibaki was given the same advice to stand on a new single party called Party of National Unity (PNU) in 2007 and ended making history as the only democratic elected President in Africa who did not have a majority in Parliament. He had only 43 elected members vis-a-vis ODM’s 99 members. Even after the post-election violence in 2007-2008, (symptoms of a weak political party), Kibaki had no choice but to share power with ODM as he could never be able to pass legislation with very few MPs, mostly from his own ethnic group. 

1st August, 2016

© 2016 STAN OYUNGA

DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE PURELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR OF THIS BLOG. THE KENYA ELECTION DATABASE IS A NON-PARTISAN WEBSITE AND IS NOT AFFILIATED TO ANY COALITION, POLITICAL PARTY OR ORGANIZATION.

WHERE ARE KENYA’S POTENTIAL YOUTH VOTERS FOUND?

By Hillary Ang’awa (hillaryangawa@gmail.com)

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is lamenting the poor response to its Voter Registration exercise from 15th February to 15th March, 2016. By end of the exercise only 1,428,056 voters has been registered out of a target of 4 million (34%). Out of this number, 493,169 were already registered voters transferring voting centers. This means only 934,887 new voters.

Only seven (7) counties managed to get 50% and above of their set targets. These are: Kajiado, Marsabit, Tana-River, Narok, Migori, Kiambu and Siaya. Further, five (5) other counties namely: Elegeyo-Marakwet, Taita Taveta, Embu, Kilifi, and Vihiga obtained less than 25% of their set targets.
The IEBC is blaming politicians for not doing enough to recruit the very voters they will need to win both the primary and General Elections in 2017. Despite pleas by the coalition and party leaders, why is there such a poor response to voter registration so far? Even the last minute surge (a supposedly Kenyan habit) did not occur this time.
Since this was a mass voter registration targeting new voters and those who wished to change their polling stations and Ward/Constituency, and another one is to be undertaken in February, 2017, there was no urgency and IEBC can expect to net no more than 5 million out of its target of 8 million, by the August, 2017 elections.
In order to find out the approximate number of youth potential voters (first time voters) and in which county they live, the Kenya Election Database looked at Kenya’s demographic data. According to the 2009 population census, there were 4.6 million Kenyans who were aged 11 to 15 in August, 2009 and would reach the age of 19 to 23 by 2017, hence would be able to register as voters. This age group would have been only 14 to 18 years of age in 2012, hence most were too young to register by December, 2012. Since the IEBC does not give the voter’s age when registering Kenyans, it not possible to know the exact number from this age group who may been registered in the mass Voter Registration in February and March, 2016 (they would have been aged 18 to 22 in 2016), as per table below:-

[table id=58 /]

Thus the total potential voters in the 11 to 15 age group in 2009 (who will be 19 to 23 years of age in 2017) will be 4,696,087 but due to mortality and other factors the number may reduce to 3.7 million (80%). The 2009 Population census not only captured the age but also the gender, county and type of area (rural or urban), hence it was possible for the first time to report the number of youth potential voters using the above parameters.
Out of the 4.6 million youth potential voters who will be aged 19 to 23 years in 2017, 2.38 million are male and 2.30 million female, hence gender ratio of 50:50. The number of this age group who live in urban areas is 1.2 million and those in rural areas is 3.4 million. Note that Nairobi and Mombasa counties do not have rural areas.

[table id=59 /]

In order to establish the new youth voter strength of each of the two main coalitions, CORD and Jubilee, each has been allocated a county where it received more than 65% of the Presidential votes in the 2013 elections. Where the both coalitions received an almost equal number of votes, then that county is considered “Fifty/Fifty” or “battleground”, as shown in the “Coalition” column above. Hence CORD has 19 counties, Jubilee 18 counties and 10 are “Fifty/Fifty” counties. Vihiga County which voted for the Amani Coalition is considered a CORD county for this analysis.
To establish each coalition’s share of the new youth potential voters, half of “Fifty/Fifty” county totals were added to each coalition’s overall totals, hence CORD’s share is 2.5 million and Jubilee’s share, 2.1 million, a variance of 450,000 in favour of CORD.(See table below).

[table id=60 /]

Before each of the main coalitions start targeting the youth potential voters for registration, they must ensure they have been issued with Identity cards as it is still the main impediment to their registration. The youths then must be educated on the importance of voting as a civic duty, especially the urban female youths, where just by physical examination of voting queues in past elections, are very few.
Whichever coalition manages to recruit and then ensure the majority of the youth voters turn-out to vote for it will end up victorious in the August, 2017 elections.
8th July, 2016

KENYA-YOUTH-VOTES-2017-ALL-1.xlsx (83 downloads)
KENYA-YOUTH-VOTES-2017-BY-CORD-COUNTIES-1.xlsx (86 downloads)
KENYA-YOUTH-VOTES-2017-BY-COUNTY-ALL-1.xlsx (89 downloads)
KENYA-YOUTH-VOTES-2017-BY-JUBILEE-COUNTIES-1.xlsx (81 downloads)
KENYA-YOUTH-VOTES-2017-URBAN-RURAL-1.xlsx (81 downloads)

© 2016 KENYA ELECTION DATABASE

WHY WIPER IS THE BIGGEST PRIZE FOR JUBILEE

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@gmail.com)

After the requiem Mass for former First Lady Lucy Kibaki held last Wednesday at Consolata Shrine in Westlands, President Uhuru Kenyatta appeared to spend a few minutes talking with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka. One may not read much into this but in the on-going coalition building for the 2017 General Elections it may be a sign of warming of relations between the two leaders who had a serious falling out in 2012, leading to Kalonzo joining forces with CORD for the 2013 elections. Raila Odinga was just standing nearby but Uhuru appeared to have no time for him.

If Jubilee wants to win the 2017 elections without a run-off, then it will have no option but to turn east to the Kamba ethnic group that occupies lower Eastern Region but has as a sizable population in Nairobi and the Coast. This ethnic group is expected to have almost 2 million potential voters in 2017 (see my blog “Road to 2017: The game of numbers”) and is a principal partner in CORD but cracks are starting to appear in the Coalition, as last week Raila thrashed the MOU he signed with Kalonzo in 2013, that assured that Raila would be a one term President should CORD win in 2013.

Wiper has had a frosty relationship with Jubilee ever since attempts by Kalonzo to endear himself to Uhuru and Ruto just after they were indicted by the ICC in The Hague in 2011, failed. A remark Kalonzo made in Mosop in Nandi County in 2012 that seemed to suggest he will be available just in case both Uhuru and Ruto are jailed by the ICC, appeared to annoy them and Kalonzo was no longer welcomed. This re-buff drove Kalonzo into the hands of Raila leading to the formation of CORD in 2012. The Kambas have never forgiven Uhuru and Ruto for the mistreatment of Kalonzo and even bringing Charity Ngilu’s National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) into Jubilee in 2013 (after a brief dalliance with CORD) did not add any significant numbers to Jubilee’s vote tally in Ukambani. Uhuru received only 89,064 in Kitui, Machakos and Makueni compared to Raila’s 768,025.

There appears to be strategy by Jubilee to win Kamba voters by using Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua, who has an immaculate development record, as an alternative to Kalonzo and there is a growing movement called the Maendeleo Chap Chap in Ukambani which may end up as a political party. But this strategy may backfire as Kambas are unlikely to abandon Kalonzo especially after the treatment they have received from their Central Region “cousins”. Why go for the “Tail” when you can eat the whole animal?

Hence in order to win re-election in 2017, Uhuru and Ruto will have to make peace and make a deal with Kalonzo that will guarantee him a significant post in the Jubilee coalition in 2017. One possible arrangement is that Kalonzo becomes Ruto’s running mate in the 2022 Elections (one heart-beat from the Presidency), meanwhile he or one of his party members can become Speaker of the National Assembly (3rd in line in succession) or Majority Leader (equivalent to Prime Minister) in the 12th Parliament in 2017. Kalonzo can only end up as a running mate once again for Raila Odinga in CORD in 2017 (with no guarantee of winning). If Wiper pulls out of CORD and joins Jubilee, then CORD will have little chance of winning the 2017 elections.

The loss of Wiper will reduce CORD’s projected voters in 2017 to 8.8 million compared to Jubilee plus Wiper’s 10.5 million, a variance of 2.7 million. Hence Jubilee can afford to lose the entire Luhya block votes in 2017 as long as they have the Kamba votes. The significant Kamba votes in Nairobi and the Coast will increase the Jubilee vote tally in both Regions.
As Uhuru prepares to tour the Lower Eastern Region to give out “goodies” watch the body language between Uhuru and Kalonzo.

5th MAY, 2016

© 2016 STAN OYUNGA