2013 GENERAL ELECTIONS: A REALITY CHECK

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@yahoo.com)

VOTER REGISTRATION

The 2013 General Election is still being referred to a generally being free and fair by most election observers and the Supreme Court in its landmark ruling on 30th March, 2013. The turn-out for the 2013 elections was 86 %, the highest in Kenya’s history.

Out of the 14,352,533 registered voters, 12,221,053 (85.90 %) took part in the 2013 General Elections but 2,022,196 (14.09 %) did not vote. But the number of registered voters in 2013 was only 57,801 more than the registered voters for the 2007 General Elections (14,294,732). This was lowest incremental difference between two successive General Elections. The incremental difference in registered voters between the 2002 and 2007 was 3,843,582. The low voter registration can be mainly attributed to voter apathy after the 2007/2008 post election violence. Another reason is delaying in issuing ID cards to youths who may have applied but were holding waiting papers.

The Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had set a voter registration target of 18. 2 million for the 2013 elections but managed to register only 14.3 million (79 % of target). But this was only 37 % of the total population of 38.6 million as per 2009 census, hence making the 2013 elections with the second lowest voter registration percentage vis-à-vis the total population. Only the 1992 elections had a lower percentage (36.6 %). The 2007 elections had 41 % voter registration while the 1983 had the highest voter registration of any election-47 %.

On average adults account for 50 % of Kenya’s population but only an average of 40 % actually register as voters. In the 2013 elections, voter registration by region was as follows:-
1. Nairobi-57 % (3.1 million)
2. Central-50 % (4.3 million)
3. Eastern-37 % (5.6 million)
4. Nyanza-36 % (5.4 million)
5. Coast-35 % (3.3 million)
6. Rift Valley-34 % (10 million)
7. Western-33 % (4.3 million)
8. North Eastern-15 % (2.3 million)

During the 2009 census, results in some districts in North Eastern Province were discredited by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) as unrealistic. This could explain why only 15 % of the population was registered as voters in 2012 in this province.

An attempt to repeat the census in these districts was stopped by the High Court, so the census results were used by the IEBC to set the new constituency boundaries.

The population of North Eastern Province has grown by 240 % in only ten years from 962,143 in 1999 to 2,310,757 in 2009. But the population of Mandera County grew by 400 % from 250,372 in 1999 to 1,025,756 in 2009.

As a result, Mandera South constituency (no 042) is now Kenya’s most populous constituency with population of 247,619, replacing Embakasi which has been split into five constituencies. The IEBC gave Mandera South a target of 115,440, the highest in the country, but by the end of the voter registration on 18th December, 2012, only 10,600 (8 %) had been registered, begging the question-why would the most populous constituency in the country have the second lowest number of registered voters in 2012?

NO SHOW VOTERS

In the 2013 General Elections, a total of 2,022,196 registered voters did not turn-up to vote, representing 14 % of all registered voters. If only 50 % of “no show voters” had turned up then the difference between the Jubilee and Cord candidates would have been narrower, hence forcing a run-off.

The 10 counties with the most “no show” voters (having half of the 2 million) in the 2013 elections were:-

1. Nairobi-318,138-Fifty/Fifty
2. Mombasa-136,429-CORD
3. Kilifi-117,958-CORD
4. Kakamega-92,682-CORD/Amani
5. Kiambu-80,093-Jubilee
6. Nakuru-79,001-Jubilee
7. Machakos-73,018-CORD
8. Kisii-64,283-CORD
9. Bungoma-59,457-CORD
10. Meru-57,446-Jubilee
It can be noted from above that out of the 10 counties with most “no show” voters, 6 were in CORD strongholds (over 540,000) and only 3 in Jubilee strongholds (over 200,000) with Nairobi being a fifty/fifty county (over 300,000). Since most “no show voters” were in counties considered CORD strongholds, it is very unlikely that the outcome of the 2013 Presidential elections would have changed even if there was a run-off.

REJECTED VOTES

In the 2013 Presidential election, 108,975 votes were rejected, which was 0.88 % of the 12,330,028 valid votes. The 5 constituencies with most rejected voters were:-

1. Cherangany (c/no 140)-1,213
2. Machakos Town (c/no 081)-1,210
3. Kiminini (c/no 139)-1,157
4. Malava (c/no 201)-1,111
5. Starehe (c/no 289)-1,047

It was noted that there were only 10 rejected votes in the Diaspora and only 2 constituencies had no rejected votes-Kesses (c/no 146) and Vihiga (c/no 211).

TURN-OUT BY CONSTITUENCY

The top 5 constituencies in number of voters who voted in the 2013 Presidential elections were:-

1. Starehe (c/no 289)-110,828 (83 %)
2. Westlands (c/no 274)-98,391(83 %)
3. Naivasha (c/no 168)-98,182 (89 %)
4. Ruiru (c/no 115)-94,666 (84 %)
5. Kasarani (c/no 280)-91,580 (88 %)

The top 5 constituencies in percentage of registered voters who voted in the 2013 Presidential elections were:-

1. Lari (c/no 122)-96.04 %
2. Awendo (c/no 254)-95.40 %
3. Kajiado West (c/no 186)-95.39 %
4. Rongo (c/no 253)-95.37 %
5. Kinangop (c/no 089)-94.85 %

The bottom 5 constituencies in percentage of registered voters who voted in the 2013 Presidential elections were:-

1. Kilifi North (c/no 011)-58.13 %
2. Kaloleni (c/no 013)-62.21 %
3. Jomvu (c/no 002)-64.01 %
4. Changamwe (c/no 001)-64.66 %
5. Kilifi South (c/no 012)-65.33 %

Note that all of the above constituencies are in Coast Region which is a CORD stronghold. There were two attacks on police officers in Miritini in Mombasa County and police officers and election officials in Chumani in Kilifi County on the eve of the General Elections leaving several dead. These attacks appear to have contributed to the low voter turn-out.

CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE

The 2013 General Elections were the largest in history comprising six distinct elections with a record 12,765 candidates comprising:-
1. Presidential-8 (1 woman)
2. Parliamentary-2098 (159 women but only 16 elected)
3. Senatorial-244 (19 women but none elected).
4. Gubernatorial-237 (7 women but none elected).
5. Women Rep-303
6. County Ward Rep-9885

Out of the 2,098 candidates who stood in the Parliamentary elections, 102 were incumbents out of which only 60 (21 %) were re-elected; 41 were former MPs out of which 17 (6 % ) were elected; 191 were previous candidates in past elections out of which 39 (13 %) were elected, 1,764 were newcomers out of which 174 (60 % ) were elected.

Out of the 47 Senators who were elected, 19 were MPs in the 10th Parliament but chose not to defend their seats; 11 were former MPs prior to the 10th Parliament; 6 were previous candidates in past Parliamentary elections; and11 were newcomers.

Out of 47 Governors who were elected, 8 were MPs in the 10th Parliament but chose not to defend their seats; 5 were former MPs prior to the 10th Parliament; 5 were previous candidates in past Parliamentary elections; and 29 were newcomers.

Out of the 47 Women Representatives elected to the National Assembly, 1 was a former MP prior to the 10th Parliament; 5 were previous candidates in past Parliamentary elections; and 41 were newcomers.

SOURCE: KENYA ELECTION DATABASE VERSION 1.0 www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke

Kenya General Elections, Did you Know?

 

  • THE MOST POPULOUS CONSTITUENCY IS MANDERA SOUTH WITH POPULATION OF 247,619 BUT HAS ONLY 10,600 REGISTERED VOTERS, THE SECOND LOWEST IN THE COUNTRY.
  • THE LEAST POPULOUS IS LAMU EAST WITH POPULATION OF 18,841 BUT ITS REGISTERED VOTERS, (12,932), EXCEED THAT OF MANDERA SOUTH.
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH MOST REGISTERED VOTERS IS STAREHE WITH 138,630 VOTERS (179 %).
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE LEAST REGISTERED VOTERS IS TURKANA EAST WITH 9,375 VOTERS (22 %).
  • KENYA HAS 47 COUNTIES, 290 NEW CONSTITUENCIES, AND 1,450 COUNTY ASSEMBLY WARDS.
  • AT TIME OF THE 2009 CENSUS, THERE WERE 8 PROVINCES, 158 DISTRICTS, 635 DIVISIONS, 2,774 LOCATIONS, 7,150 SUB-LOCATIONS, 175 LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND 215 URBAN CENTRES.
  • URBAN CENTRES COMPRISED OF 3 CITIES, 42 MUNICIPALITIES, 55 TOWN COUNCILS AND 115 URBAN AREAS.
  • OUT OF TOTAL KENYA 2009 POPULATION OF 38,610,097, A TOTAL OF 8,934,164 (23 %) LIVE IN CORE URBAN AREAS.
  • THE MOST VOTES CAST IN ANY ELECTION WAS IN EMBAKASI CONSTITUENCY DURING THE 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WHEN 141,125 VOTES WERE CAST OUT OF 249,903 REGISTERED VOTERS (56 %).
  • THE MOST VOTES CAST IN A PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS IN EMBAKASI CONSTITUENCY IN 2007 WHEN 136,580 VOTES WERE CAST OUT OF 249,903 REGISTERED VOTERS (54 %).
  • THE LOWEST VOTES CAST IN ANY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS IN BARINGO EAST CONSTITUENCY IN 1969 WHEN 1,161 VOTES WERE CAST OUT OF 6,342 REGISTERED VOTERS
  • THE LOWEST VOTES CAST IN ANY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS IN IJARA CONSTITUENCY IN 1992 WHEN 2,827 VOTES WERE CAST OUT OF 7,908 REGISTERED VOTERS.
  • MOST VOTES CAST IN ANY BY-ELECTION WAS IN JUJA CONSTITUENCY WHEN 93,021 VOTES WERE CAST OUT OF 188,123 REGISTERED VOTERS.
  • MOST CANDIDATES STANDING IN A SINGLE CONSTITUENCY IN A PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS 33 IN KITUTU MASABA IN 2007.
  • MOST CANDIDATES STANDING IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS 15 IN 1997
  • MOST CANDIDATES STANDING IN A SINGLE CONSTITUENCY IN A BY-ELECTION WAS 18 IN EMUHAYA IN 2008
  • MOST CANDIDATES STANDING IN A PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS 2,547 IN 2007 COMPARED WITH 2,098 IN 2013.
  • PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WITH MOST UNOPPOSED CANDIDATES WAS 1988 WITH 65.
  • PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WITH LEAST UNOPPOSED CANDIDATE WAS 2002 WITH ONE.
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE HIGHEST VOTER TURN-OUT IN ANY ELECTION WAS KIHARU IN THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 101 %.
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE HIGHEST TURN-OUT IN A PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS KARACHUONYO IN 2007 WITH 95.57 %.
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE HIGHEST NO SHOW VOTERS IN ANY ELECTION WAS EMBAKASI IN 2008 BY-ELECTION WHEN 182,628 FAILED TO VOTE (73%) OUT OF 249,970 REGISTERED VOTERS.
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF REJECTED VOTES WAS NORTH IMENTI IN 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 5,997 (6.7 % OF CAST VOTES).
  • THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF REJECTED VOTES IN A PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS BUMULA IN 2002 WITH 4,842 (14.8 % OF CAST VOTES).
  • THE ONLY TIME WHERE TWO CANDIDATES TIED FOR FIRST PLACE WAS IN WAJIR NORTH 2007 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WHEN BOTH RECEIVED 3,675 LEADING TO THE ELECTION BEING REPEATED IN 2008.

Compiled by SYSTEX SOLUTIONS P.O. BOX 2523-00200 NAIROBI

COALITION STRONGHOLDS OVERVIEW

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FIFTY-FIFTY”,”f”:null},{“v”:598252,”f”:null},{“v”:219616,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”VIHIGA  – FIFTY-FIFTY”,”f”:null},{“v”:554622,”f”:null},{“v”:202456,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”KWALE – CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:649931,”f”:null},{“v”:173447,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”BARINGO – JUBILEE”,”f”:null},{“v”:555561,”f”:null},{“v”:171013,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”LAIKIPIA – JUBILEE”,”f”:null},{“v”:399227,”f”:null},{“v”:170267,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”THARAKA-NITHI – JUBILEE”,”f”:null},{“v”:365330,”f”:null},{“v”:155823,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”ELGEYO MARAKWET – JUBILEE”,”f”:null},{“v”:369998,”f”:null},{“v”:134290,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”MANDERA – CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:1025756,”f”:null},{“v”:121005,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”TURKANA – FIFTY-FIFTY”,”f”:null},{“v”:855399,”f”:null},{“v”:120345,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”GARISSA – CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:623060,”f”:null},{“v”:116166,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”TAITA-TAVETA- CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:284657,”f”:null},{“v”:112219,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”WAJIR -CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:661941,”f”:null},{“v”:110286,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”WEST POKOT- JUBILEE”,”f”:null},{“v”:512690,”f”:null},{“v”:107894,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”MARSABET- CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:291166,”f”:null},{“v”:104408,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”TANA RIVER- CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:240075,”f”:null},{“v”:73037,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”SAMBURU- CORD”,”f”:null},{“v”:223947,”f”:null},{“v”:56662,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:”ISIOLO – FIFTY-FIFTY”,”f”:null},{“v”:143294,”f”:null},{“v”:52617,”f”:null}|},{“c”:^{“v”:””,”f”:null},{“v”:null,”f”:null},{“v”:null,”f”:null}|}|,”p”:null},”options”:{“legend”:”in”,”isStacked”:true,”vAxes”:^{“viewWindow”:{“max”:null,”min”:null},”minValue”:null,”maxValue”:null,”useFormatFromData”:true,”logScale”:false},{“viewWindow”:{“max”:null,”min”:null},”minValue”:null,”maxValue”:null,”useFormatFromData”:true,”logScale”:false}|,”animation”:{“duration”:500},”booleanRole”:”certainty”,”hAxis”:{“useFormatFromData”:true,”minValue”:null,”maxValue”:null,”viewWindow”:null,”viewWindowMode”:null},”title”:”COALTITION STRONGHOLDS PER COUNTY”,”titleTextStyle”:{“color”:”#000″,”fontSize”:”16″,”bold”:true},”backgroundColor”:{“fill”:”#d9d9d9″},”theme”:”maximized”,”focusTarget”:”category”,”series”:{“0”:{“color”:”#00ff00″}}},”state”:{},”chartType”:”AreaChart”}’ ]

JUBILEE COUNTY STATISTICS

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CORD COUNTY STATISTICS

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DID THE IEBC OVER TARGET THE 2012 VOTER REGISTRATION?

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@yahoo.com)

 

Now that the 2012 voter registration exercise is over, the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission missed its original target of 18 million registered voters by about 2.7 million, according to its provisional figures at close of the exercise on 18th December, 2012.

The IEBC may have actually over targeted the number of Kenya’s voting population by over one million; hence it should be closer to 17 million.

According to the 2009 population census, Kenya had 38, 610,097 people out of which 19,443,397 (50%) were adults (aged 18 or above) and 388, 985 were non-Kenyans. Since non-Kenyans are not permitted to vote (about 200,000 adults), the voting population would be about 19.2 million in 2009.

Since there were 2,564,249 persons aged 15 to 17 in 2009, they would have turned 18 by December, 2012 hence would increase the voting population to about 22 million (see Table 1).

[table id=2 /]

Due several factors, including mortality rate, lack of Kenya identity cards or general apathy, the average percentage of the adult population who register to vote is 40 % or about 80 % of the population (see table 4A). In 1969, 39 % (4.2 million) of the Kenya population of 10.9 million were registered. In 1992, 37 % (7.8 million) of the population of 21.4 million were registered.

In 2007, Kenya’s population was projected at 34.6 million out of which 14.2 million (41 %) were registered as voters, but number fell to only 12.5 million (32 %) in 2010 during the referendum.

Hence if the IEBC had looked at past voter registration data, they would have targeted about 17 million voters (about 80 % of projected adult population of 22 million in 2012).

Another factor is that during the 2009 census, results in some districts in North Eastern Province were discredited by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) as unrealistic.

An attempt to repeat the census in these districts was stopped by the High Court, so the census results were used by the IEBC to set the new constituency boundaries.

The population of North Eastern Province has grown by 240 % in only ten years from 962,143 in 1999 to 2,310,757 in 2009. But the population of Mandera County grew by 400 % from 250,372 in 1999 to 1,025,756 in 2009. (See Tables 2-2 ) .

[table id=4 /]

(Table 2-3)

[table id=6 /]

As a result, Mandera South constituency (no 042) is now Kenya’s most populous constituency with population of 247,619, replacing Embakasi which has been split in to five constituencies.

Before Mandera South was created in 2012 it was part of the old Mandera Central (old no 39) which had a population of 94,120 in 1999. In 2012 it was split into two-Mandera South (no 042) and Mandera North (no 041), the latter with population of 169,675.

Hence the combined total population of both constituencies is 417,294, from only 94,120 in 1999, hence a growth of 500 % in only ten years. (See Table 2-4).

[table id=8 /]

The IEBC gave Mandera South a target of 115,440, the highest in the country, but by the end of the voter registration on 18th December, 2012, only 10,600 (8 %) had been registered, begging the question-why would the most populous constituency in the country have the lowest number of registered voters in 2012?