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2013 Elections: Tyranny of Numbers – Fact or Myth?

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@yahoo.com) INTRODUCTION The 2013 General Election is still being referred to a two horse race, between CORD and the Jubilee Coalitions, the latter’s Presidential candidate won with 6.1 million votes against the former’s with 5.3 million votes. The difference between Uhuru Kenyatta (6,173,433) and Raila Odinga (5,340,546) was 832,887 which lent credence to the infamous “tyranny of numbers” debate on social media. The “tyranny of numbers” debate seemed to have correctly predicted that the Jubilee Coalition had already “won” the 2013 General Elections by 18th December, 2012, when the voter registration exercise ended. Areas perceived to be [...]

2013 GENERAL ELECTIONS: A REALITY CHECK

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@yahoo.com) VOTER REGISTRATION The 2013 General Election is still being referred to a generally being free and fair by most election observers and the Supreme Court in its landmark ruling on 30th March, 2013. The turn-out for the 2013 elections was 86 %, the highest in Kenya’s history. Out of the 14,352,533 registered voters, 12,221,053 (85.90 %) took part in the 2013 General Elections but 2,022,196 (14.09 %) did not vote. But the number of registered voters in 2013 was only 57,801 more than the registered voters for the 2007 General Elections (14,294,732). This was lowest incremental [...]

Kenya General Elections, Did you Know?

  THE MOST POPULOUS CONSTITUENCY IS MANDERA SOUTH WITH POPULATION OF 247,619 BUT HAS ONLY 10,600 REGISTERED VOTERS, THE SECOND LOWEST IN THE COUNTRY. THE LEAST POPULOUS IS LAMU EAST WITH POPULATION OF 18,841 BUT ITS REGISTERED VOTERS, (12,932), EXCEED THAT OF MANDERA SOUTH. THE CONSTITUENCY WITH MOST REGISTERED VOTERS IS STAREHE WITH 138,630 VOTERS (179 %). THE CONSTITUENCY WITH THE LEAST REGISTERED VOTERS IS TURKANA EAST WITH 9,375 VOTERS (22 %). KENYA HAS 47 COUNTIES, 290 NEW CONSTITUENCIES, AND 1,450 COUNTY ASSEMBLY WARDS. AT TIME OF THE 2009 CENSUS, THERE WERE 8 PROVINCES, 158 DISTRICTS, 635 DIVISIONS, 2,774 LOCATIONS, [...]

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OVERVIEW OF THE KENYA ELECTION DATABASE VER 1.0

The Kenya Election Database Version 1.0 is the first and so far only Election Data Analysis and Strategic Election Planning software on Kenya General Elections. The Database is a collection of well researched and detailed analysis of all parliamentary elections since 1969, presidential elections since 1992 and by-elections since 1993. It also has full results of the 2013 General Elections in respect of Presidential, Parliamentary, Senatorial, Gubernatorial and Women Representative. The Database has full results of 3,350 constituency and county elections covering 21,958 candidate results and is the only single source of full election results available in the market.

The Database also includes details of all 210 old constituencies and the 290 new constituencies, created in 2012, including history, administrative area covered, population, land area, maps etc; details of the 1,450 county assembly wards; details of 178 political parties including the 58 officially registered parties, and their symbols; 2009 population census for all 8 old provinces, 47 counties, 158 districts, 635 divisions, 2,724 locations, 7,150 sub-locations; and 215 urban centers.

The Database has the results of both the 1999 and 2009 Census, hence can also be used for social, marketing and consumer research.

The Database has details of registered voters from 1969 to December, 2012 and analysis of population vis-à-vis registered voters.

The Database has details of all candidates who have ever stood in any General Elections since 1969, including gender and status, i.e. incumbent, former winner, previous candidate or newcomer.

The Database has over 500 reports some of which are unique to this Database, e.g. Constituency notes, Political party notes, Kenya election history, women candidates, etc.

The database is the most comprehensive analysis of Kenya General Elections and has been well researched by competent professionals as given in the following menu.

  1. Old Constituency and Election details [1969-2012].
  2. Candidate Election results by old Constituency [1969-2012].
  3. Presidential Election details [1992-2013].
  4. New Constituency and Election details [2013].
  5. County and Elections details [2013]
  6. Candidate Election results by new Constituency [2013].
  7. Candidate Election results by County [2013].
  8. Presidential Election details-County results [2013].
  9. New Constituency and County Assembly Ward details.
  10. New Constituency and Sub-location details.
  11. Political parties details.
  12. Province population census 1969 – 2009.
  13. Province/County/District/Division/Location/Sub-location census details.
  14. Local Authority and Urban Centre census details.
  15. Urban Centre census and status.
  16. Ethnic Group census details.
  17. Voter registration details [1969-2012].
  18. 2007 Province and District statistics.
  19. Kenya Election History [1963-2013].
  20. 2007 General Election Results.
  21. 2013 Election Nomination Reports.
  22. 2013 Candidate Results Reports.
  23. Preview and print Analytical reports [525 reports].

The Database is currently packaged in a CD-Rom running on Microsoft Access platform or can be down-loaded from the website-www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke.   Your PC or Laptop must have MS Access version 2002 or later versions already installed.  It comes zipped hence must be unzipped and installed in your hard-drive. It is about 800MB in size.

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COALITION STRONGHOLDS OVERVIEW

JUBILEE COUNTY STATISTICS

CORD COUNTY STATISTICS

DID THE IEBC OVER TARGET THE 2012 VOTER REGISTRATION?

DID THE IEBC OVER TARGET THE 2012 VOTER REGISTRATION?

By Stan Oyunga (stanoyunga@yahoo.com)   Now that the 2012 voter registration exercise is over, the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission missed its original target of 18 million registered voters by about 2.7 million, according to its provisional figures at close of the exercise on 18th December, 2012. The IEBC may have actually over targeted the number of Kenya’s voting population by over one million; hence it should be closer to 17 million. According to the 2009 population census, Kenya had 38, 610,097 people out of which 19,443,397 (50%) were adults (aged 18 or above) and 388, 985 were non-Kenyans. Since non-Kenyans [...]